Has Snowflake Stock Bottomed Out?

UKRAINE – 2021/03/12: In this checklist illustration the Snowflake Inc. mark of a US cloud-based completely … [+] info-warehousing firm is seen on a smartphone and a notebook computer cloak. (Describe Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Photography/LightRocket by Getty Photography)


SOPA Photography/LightRocket by Getty Photography

Snowflake stock (NYSE: SNOW) has rallied by about 24% from its lows plan $188 per portion, rising gradually over the final six straight buying and selling intervals. The hot gains plan on the abet of more sure views from sell-side analysts and is additionally seemingly as investors, who had been beforehand on the sidelines, are now seeing mark in the stock. So is Snowflake aloof a steal at fresh ranges of about $233 per portion? We aloof judge the stock remains a magnificent mark, pondering that Snowflake remains a high play on the rising adoption of cloud computing and vast info in the enterprise attach. The stock additionally aloof remains down by about 40% from its all-time highs.

Now the plan-term trajectory for Snowflake stock will depend on its Q1 2021 earnings, which can be due on Wednesday, Can also 26. There are just a few traits that designate an spectacular situation of results. IT spending is seemingly to procure further this year, with firms having a survey to bound their digital transitions submit-Covid. Moreover, the cloud avid gamers bear already reported net results for Q1 and this ought to aloof additionally bode smartly for Snowflake, whose companies are built on high of the three most valuable public clouds. For example, Amazon’s AWS saw gross sales develop 32% in Q1, while Google’s cloud gross sales expanded by 46%.

Peep our interactive dashboard diagnosis on Snowflake’s Valuation for more valuable aspects on the firm’s income, development, valuation, and comparison with peers.

[5/11/2021] Snowflake Stock Looks Savor A Solid Take cling of

Snowflake stock (NYSE: SNOW) has declined by about 13% over the final week, driven by the broader sell-off in expertise shares, as investors persisted to re-allocate to cyclical and cost shares that are inclined to outperform in some unspecified time in the future of an economic restoration. Excessive multiple names equivalent to Snowflake, had been specifically badly hit with the stock now down by about 50% from the all-time highs seen in December. So is Snowflake stock a steal at fresh ranges? We judge it is for just a few reasons.

Snowflake’s forward P/S multiple has declined from about 100x just a few months previously to about 50x for the time being, no topic the truth that the traditional image for the firm has now not regularly changed. Cloud-based completely info warehousing is clearly the future, as organizations transition from storing info on on-premise servers and dear hardware to cloud-based completely choices which can be more cost-efficient and scalable. Snowflake is terribly smartly positioned in the attach, as its product works across cloud platforms and additionally separates storage from computing for billing capabilities. This reflects in Snowflake’s performance, with the firm persistently doubling revenues over the last few years. Gross sales are additionally projected to develop by about 85% in FY’22 (fiscal years pause on January 31) to about $1.1 billion per consensus estimates. Brooding about that the firm had a contract backlog of around $1.3 billion as of Q4 FY’21, it is seemingly that it will aloof very simply meet these estimates. There appears lots more room for development one day. Snowflake estimates its total fresh addressable market at about $81 billion, over 70x its projected FY’22 income. Snowflake’s industry mannequin is additionally consumption-based completely, as an different of being fixed price, now not like many numerous SaaS names, giving the firm’s plenty of upside as info and search info from volumes upward push for purchasers. Peep our interactive dashboard diagnosis on Snowflake’s Valuation for more valuable aspects on the firm’s income, development, valuation, and comparison with peers.

[3/8/2021] Snowflake Stock Is Better Worth Following Q4 Outcomes, Most up-to-date Promote-Off

Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) printed a stronger-than-anticipated situation of Q4 2021 results final week (FY ends January), with income rising by about 117% to $107.6 million, driven by persisted sturdy uptake of the firm’s cloud-based completely info warehousing alternatives. The firm additionally supplied steering for FY’22, projecting $1.00 billion to $1.02 billion in product income, translating into a development price of as a lot as 84% year-over-year. The firm’s remaining performance duties (RPO) – or the amount of future income that has been diminished in measurement by customers but now not identified – grew more than 3x year-over-year to $1.3 billion.

While Snowflake’s development outlook remains net, is the stock a magnificent steal? Potentially. Even though Snowflake is aloof valued at a fairly rich 62x consensus 2022 revenues, the stock has corrected by about 20% over the final month and is down by shut to 39% from its submit IPO highs, buying and selling at ranges of around $240 per portion. Snowflake is additionally seemingly to develop into its lofty valuation fairly like a flash. The firm’s addressable market is fine at $81 billion and Snowflake’s product additionally has multiple advantages over rivals, including being platform agnostic, while additionally isolating storage from computing. Individually, the submit-IPO lock-up-linked overhang on the stock is additionally seemingly to ease, because the firm’s third and final lock-up expired following Q4 results. Now, there are potentially cheaper ways to play the cloud-based completely info warehousing attach. For example, legacy database and analytics most valuable Teradata has made plenty of progress with its cling cloud-based completely product. (gaze our update under) Nonetheless, Snowflake’s net product, execution, and fresh correction fabricate the stock a fairly compelling pick.

[2/17/2021] Teradata: Snowflake On A Budget?

We judge that Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW), a provider of cloud info warehousing alternatives, is greatly overestimated compared to Teradata (NYSE:TDC), a firm that offers database and analytics machine. Snowflake has a market cap of about $82 billion, valued at about 75x forward income, while Teradata’s market cap stands at lawful over $5 billion, or at about 3x forward revenues. Does this gap in valuation fabricate sense? We don’t judge so. Definite, Snowflake is the most up so a long way title in the cloud info warehousing attach, which is in prefer with investors, and its revenues are rising sooner, but there is more to this memoir. While Teradata is on occasion linked to on-premise databases, it has made better than anticipated progress with its cling cloud-based completely product. We judge that will perchance also swap in the narrative surrounding Teradata, potentially enabling the stock to be re-rated by investors, closing its valuation gap with Snowflake. Let’s rating a more in-depth see at the two firms’ monetary performance, cloud info warehousing products, and valuations to catch out more. Snowflake Vs. Teradata: SNOW Stock Looks Hyped up In comparison to TDC

Revenues Enhance & Margins

Snowflake’s revenues are on track to broaden at an annual price of over 140% between FY’19 and FY’21 (fiscal years pause January) as query for its cloud-based completely product has soared. FY’21 revenues are anticipated to face at roughly $580 million, per consensus estimates, when the firm reports its results in some unspecified time in the future of the dear week of March. In comparison, Teradata has seen revenues decline from around $2.2 billion in 2018 to about $1.8 billion in 2020, as its on-premise warehousing mannequin faced competition from Cloud-based completely avid gamers. Nonetheless, Teradata is winning, with its adjusted running margins standing at about 13% final year. While these are now not astronomical margins for a expertise firm, they’re aloof better than Snowflake, which remains deeply loss-making.

Teradata’s Growth In Cloud Files Warehousing 

While Snowflake has been more than doubling its industry each and each year, Teradata’s cloud operations are additionally gaining net traction. Namely, over Q4 2020 the firm stated that the annual ordinary income (ARR) – which is the annual mark of all ordinary contracts as of Q4 – for public-cloud-based completely companies grew to $106 million, a 165% soar year-over-year. Much like Snowflake, Teradata’s product is additionally cloud-agnostic and works across the most valuable public clouds from Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. The firm additionally has a fine situation of novel customers that it will potentially sell its cloud-based completely providing to. Undoubtedly, in the firm’s earnings name, it indicated that it became once a hit some customers faraway from Snowflake. Overall, Teradata expects public cloud ARR to broaden by now not decrease than 165% year-over-year in Q1 2021 and expects to now not decrease than double ARR year-over-year for 2021.

Why The Valuation Hole Can also Slim

Let’s plan abet to the valuation. If we had been to mark Teradata’s cloud industry by myself by applying Snowflake’s fresh 75x income multiple to its $106 million poke price revenues, the industry section could perchance be valued at about $8 billion – with the exception of Terada’s winning legacy firms, which aloof narrative for over 90% of its income. Nonetheless, Teradata’s total fresh market cap stands at lawful about $5 billion. This technique that the firm ought so that you just can free up mark from the cloud industry as it continues to file sturdy development in the impending quarters. Overall, we judge Teradata stock feels like a higher bet compared to Snowflake at this juncture, given its decrease valuation and cost threat, and the seemingly upside from its cloud industry. We judge that the adaptation in P/S multiple of 75x for Snowflake versus under 3x for Teradata will seemingly narrow going forward, implying better returns for Teradata stock.

[1/22/2021] Is Snowflake Stock A Take cling of? 

Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW) stock trades at ranges of around $286, down by roughly 26% from its December highs driven in phase by a partial lock-up expiration, which allowed workers to sell a part of their vested alternatives, and some sell-side analysts turning cautious about the firm’s valuation. Snowflake stock now trades at about 75x projected FY’22 Earnings (FY ends January), smartly above the broader Files superhighway machine sector buying and selling at a P/S multiple of about 15x. ((Tag To Gross sales Multiples By Sector, NYU Stern)) Nonetheless, hyper-development names equivalent to Snowflake can’t be valued in step with multiples by myself and investors favor to see at the firm’s broader memoir and its skill to pressure prolonged-term development.

Our interactive dashboard diagnosis of Snowflake’s Valuation offers more valuable aspects on the firm’s income, development, and valuation.

Snowflake sells database warehousing machine – the use of a the same well-liked supplied by on-premise avid gamers equivalent to Oracle – designed specifically for the cloud. This mannequin offers lots more flexibility and scalability, with pricing additionally being variable, in step with consumption. Snowflake’s Revenues are projected to double in FY’21 to about $580 million and develop by practically 90% subsequent year, per consensus figures. There’s magnificent cause to judge that Snowflake can continue to submit excessive ranges of development going forward as smartly. Before every thing, the addressable market is fine at $81 billion, per Snowflake’s estimates. Brooding about that consensus Earnings estimates for 2022 stand at lawful around $1.1 billion, the firm has quite lots of room for development. While there are completely different rivals on this attach, including Amazon’s Redshift, Microsoft’s Azure Synapse, and Google’s Great Quiz, Snowflake offers sturdy product differentiation. Snowflake’s mannequin works across completely different cloud platforms. Snowflake additionally separates storage from computing, enabling each and each to scale up or down independently, giving customers better flexibility and price savings. Snowflake is additionally curiously more straightforward for purchasers to use, without the need for a dedicated database administrator.

The low-ardour-price ambiance is inflicting investors to rating a longer-horizon see with shares, discounting plan-term earnings for prolonged-term gains and this has resulted in investors to pay a limiteless top price for development names equivalent to Snowflake. Nonetheless, Snowflake’s valuable development runway, coupled with its modern product ought to aloof fabricate the stock a magnificent prolonged-term bet at fresh ranges though we produce now not judge the stock will gaze outsize gains in the plan-term. There’s additionally minute room for error. If Snowflake’s development falters for any cause, the stock could perchance also gaze a valuable correction.

[Updated 1/5/2021] What’s Going on With Snowflake Stock?

Cloud-based completely info warehousing firm Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW) saw its stock decline by practically 30% over the final month. While now not a lot in actuality changed on the floor for Snowflake, which is on track to more than double revenues this fiscal year, there are just a few things that bear seemingly driven the sell-off. Before every thing, Snowflake stock remains very richly valued buying and selling at over 130x consensus FY’21 Revenues and is up by about 130% from its IPO mark. Brooding about these vast gains, investors are seemingly booking some earnings. Secondly, in mid-December Snowflake saw its first lockup open submit its IPO, allowing workers to sell 25% of their vested alternatives. While this easiest had a restricted impact, investors are seemingly enthusiastic that the corpulent lock-up expiration, which occurs this March, will place lots more stress on the stock. Snowflake’s recede alongside side the drift, or the shares on hand to investors for getting and selling, stands at lawful about 18% of its total shares eminent for the time being. Thirdly, with Covid-19 vaccines being rolled out globally, investors could perchance also very smartly be rethinking their allocation to cloud computing shares which had been a hot theme by the pandemic, while engaging to more mark bets. This could even additionally be a side hurting Snowflake stock.

[11/30/2020] Why Snowflake Rallied 20%

Cloud-based completely info warehousing startup Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW) saw its stock rally by over 20% final week to about $330 per portion, valuing the firm at about $90 billion. While there wasn’t a lot news from the firm over the final week, there could perchance also very smartly be just a few things that drove up the stock. Before every thing, Snowflake is seemingly to file its first situation of quarterly results as a public firm on December 2 and investors are seemingly expecting sturdy numbers. For standpoint, the consensus estimates that the firm will submit income of about $148 million, and a loss per portion of about -$0.26. Individually, investors bear persisted to double down on excessive-development and machine shares by the final week, after taking a breather earlier in the month amid the vaccine news. For example, Zoom won about 12% over the final week while Tesla stock became once up by about 18%. This additionally seemingly helped Snowflake. Now while Snowflake’s memoir and development charges are compelling, the firm’s lofty valuation remains a direct, pondering that it now trades at about 150x projected 2021 Revenues. (Peep our clarify under for the principle risks that Snowflake faces.)

Our interactive diagnosis on Snowflake’s Valuation offers more valuable aspects on the firm’s Earnings and valuation.

[Updated 11/12/2020] Snowflake Stock: 3 Key Dangers

Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW), the cloud-based completely info warehousing firm that went public in September, is valued at over $65 billion, or about $240 per portion. Under, we rating a survey at just a few of the principle risks that the firm faces.

Snowflake’s machine enables organizations to withhold a watch on and analyze fine portions and numerous forms of information across public clouds equivalent to Amazon’s AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft’s Azure, in a single, easy to use platform. Nonetheless, these public cloud avid gamers additionally provide their very cling info warehousing alternatives. For example, Amazon’s AWS offers Redshift, while Google offers BigQuery and these firms bear an spectacular incentive to advertise their very cling warehousing choices, which enables them to lock customers into their companies and products. Snowflake acknowledges this threat in its S-1 submitting, noting that these firms could perchance also use withhold a watch on of their public clouds to embed enhancements or privileged capabilities for their competing choices or bundle their competing products. Snowflake additionally relies on infrastructure from the most valuable cloud avid gamers equivalent to AWS and it’s additionally imaginable that they’d perchance also provide Snowflake with coarse pricing. Such strikes could perchance also pain Snowflake’s industry and profitability.

Snowflake stock additionally has substantial valuation threat, pondering that it trades at about 115x projected FY’21 revenues, compared to the broader machine attach that trades at about 8x Revenues. [1] At these valuations, the firm has very minute room for error and must provide to perfection to clarify its stock mark. Moreover, Snowflake’s public recede alongside side the drift – which is the different of shares held by public investors – is terribly low, with the firm providing lawful 28 million shares or about 10% of its total shares eminent in some unspecified time in the future of its IPO. The low provide of shares is never any query a most valuable cause the stock has rallied rather a lot since its list. With Snowflake stock up about 2x from its IPO mark, it is terribly seemingly that workers and investors could perchance also money out when the submit IPO lockup period expires in March 2021, inserting downward stress on the stock.

[Updated 10/21/2020] Snowflake Vs. Palantir

The final month saw Palantir (NYSE: PLTR) and Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW) – two fairly excessive profile machine avid gamers recede public. Snowflake’s machine enables organizations to withhold a watch on and analyze fine portions and numerous forms of information across public clouds equivalent to Amazon’s AWS in a single, easy to use platform. Palantir offers vast info and analytics alternatives essentially ancient by governments and intelligence agencies, though it has been expanding its presence in the commercial attach.

While the two firms are centered on vast info, investors are valuing them very in a completely different method. Snowflake stock trades at over 120x projected FY’21 Revenues (FY ends January) while Palantir trades at lawful about 15x projected FY’20 Revenues (FY pause December). Does this fabricate sense? How carry out the firms study by strategy of industry objects, income development charges, and margins? We provide more valuable aspects under.

Peep our interactive diagnosis on Snowflake’s Valuation and Palantir’s Valuation for more valuable aspects on the two firms’ valuation.

Revenues & Enhance Rates

Palantir’s Revenues grew by 24% to about $740 million in 2019 and development is seemingly to make a choice-up to ranges of over 40% in 2020 as Covid-19 linked disruptions increased query for the firm’s companies. In comparison, Snowflake saw Earnings develop 173% from $97 million in FY’19 to about $265 million in FY’20, though the growth price is seemingly to boring down to roughly 110% over the fresh fiscal in step with consensus figures. Overall, Snowflake’s Revenues ought to aloof develop at a more in-depth price compared to Palantir, pondering its SaaS-based completely mannequin which can scale to a fine contaminated of customers with a lot less customization. Palantir, on the completely different hand, wants engineers to adapt its instruments to the new wants of customers. Snowflake had over 3,100 customers as of July 2020, compared to Palantir which had about 125 customers as of its final fiscal year.

Profitability 

While Palantir is fairly ahead by strategy of income margins pondering that it is the more inclined firm (Palantir became once based in 2003 versus Snowflake which became once based in 2012), we quiz Snowflake to be more winning in the prolonged-poke given its fairly more standardized product and decrease buyer acquisition charges. Snowflake posted a Sinister Earnings Margin of 62% for the dear six months of FY’21, with Running Margins standing at -72%. Palantir’s Sinister Margins stood at about 72% over the dear six months of 2020, with Running Margins coming in at about -35%.

Valuation 

Snowflake stock has more than doubled from its IPO mark of $120 to about $250 for the time being, valuing the firm at about $70 billion. Palantir, on the completely different hand, hasn’t moved too a lot since its list and is valued at about $15 billion. There are just a few reasons for Snowflake’s top price valuation. Before every thing, the firm is rising a lot sooner than Palantir and can additionally be more winning in the prolonged-poke given its highly scalable provide mannequin. Merchants bear additionally been paying a limiteless top price for development shares. Secondly, now not like Palantir which has excessive publicity to government contracts – specifically in areas linked to surveillance and national security – inflicting transparency and perception points, Snowflake’s industry is centered on more commercial customers.

That stated, Snowflake has substantial valuation threat, pondering that it trades at about 122x projected FY’21 revenues, compared to Palantir which trades at lawful about 15x projected 2020 Revenues. The memoir could perchance also swap like a flash. If Snowflake’s development charges boring down, with the firm going by competition from cloud majors equivalent to Amazon and Google who provide their very cling info warehousing alternatives, investors could perchance also re-judge its valuation. On the completely different side, investors could perchance also double down on Palantir stock in the occasion that they gaze more proof aspects indicating that the firm is making progress in the commercial sector, by excessive profile deals or stronger Earnings development.

[Updated 9/29/2020] Placing Snowflake’s Valuation Into Point of view

Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW), the cloud-based completely info warehousing firm that went public lately, is valued at about $60 billion, or about $220 per portion. The firm trades at a whopping 230x trailing Revenues – smartly above many numerous excessive-development SaaS names. Can Snowflake clarify this valuation? In our interactive dashboard diagnosis on Snowflake’s Valuation: Pricey Or Low-cost we destroy down the firm’s revenues and valuation and study it with completely different excessive-development machine avid gamers. Ingredients of the diagnosis are summarized under.

A Transient Be taught about At Snowflake’s Alternate & Dangers

Snowflake’s machine enables organizations to withhold a watch on and analyze fine portions and numerous forms of information across public clouds equivalent to Amazon’s AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft’s Azure in a single, easy to use platform. Snowflake stands to back as firms an increasing selection of recede to the cloud while leveraging vast info and synthetic intelligence. Even though most valuable public cloud avid gamers bear their very cling info warehousing alternatives, (Amazon’s AWS offers Redshift, while Google offers BigQuery), Snowflake’s platform offers more flexibility compared to rivals and works smartly across platforms. Nonetheless, the vast cloud avid gamers bear an spectacular incentive to advertise their very cling warehousing choices, as it enables them to lock customers into their platforms and companies. There is a possibility that these firms could perchance also use their astronomical sources and withhold a watch on over their respective platforms to manufacture an edge over Snowflake.

Snowflake’s Earnings

Let’s rating a more in-depth see at what’s riding Snowflake’s Earnings. Snowflake has two running segments. 1) Products, which consist of Snowflake’s core info warehousing alternatives. Potentialities pay per the compute and storage that they use. 2) Educated Products and companies – which comprises consulting, on-location technical resolution companies, and training linked to the platform.

Snowflake’s Product Earnings grew from $96 million in FY’19 to about $252 million in FY’20, because the firm grew its buyer contaminated by 152% from 948 in FY’19 to 2,392 customers. Based completely on the historical development price, and development over Q2 (it had 3,117 customers as of July 2020), we quiz Snowflake’s buyer contaminated to develop to about 4,600 in FY’21, with total Product revenues coming in at about $530 million. Snowflake’s Total Earnings, which comprises its income from Educated Products and companies grew from $97 million in FY’19 to about $265 in FY’20 and we quiz it to develop 110% to about $557 million in FY’21.

Now Snowflake is now not easiest including new customers at a snappily clip, but it is additionally better monetizing its novel customers. Snowflake’s Earn Earnings Retention price – which is the p.c of income retained from the prior year after factoring for upgrades, downgrades, and churn – stood at 158%, indicating that novel customers continue to exhaust more.

Why Is Snowflake’s Trading At Such A Top price?

With benchmark ardour charges at plan-zero ranges, investors bear in general been paying a top price for development. Nonetheless, Snowflake stock, which trades at about 110x our projected FY’21 revenues for the firm and over 230x FY’20 revenues seems costly. Let’s study Snowflake with completely different excessive development SaaS and database avid gamers. Datadog trades at 76x trailing revenues and posted 83% income development in 2020. Okta trades at 25x trailing revenues and posted 46% development over its most quiet fiscal year. MongoDB trades at 22x and posted 58% development.

Definite Snowflake is rising sooner than these firms, but there is one other cause the stock could perchance also very smartly be buying and selling so excessive, particularly a low provide of shares. Snowflake’s public recede alongside side the drift – which is the different of shares held by public investors – stood at lawful 28 million shares or about 10% of its total shares eminent, and the low provide of shares is seemingly to bear resulted in a describe up in the cost. With Snowflake stock up practically 2x from its IPO mark, it is terribly seemingly that workers and investors will snatch to money out because the submit IPO lockup intervals expire, inserting downward stress on the stock.

While Snowflake appears like overpriced compared to Teradata, 2020 has created many numerous pricing discontinuities that can provide exquisite buying and selling alternatives. For example, it is seemingly you’ll perchance be shocked how the stock valuation for Microsoft vs. Corcept Therapeutics exhibits a disconnect with their relative operational development. Yow will detect many such discontinuous pairs right here.

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