Nio (NYSE: NIO), the Chinese language premium EV maker, noticed its stock upward thrust by about 10% over the final month (round 21 shopping and selling days), outperforming the S&P 500 which rose by about 3% over the identical period. While the stock faced some stress in September on account of the Evergrande debt disaster in China and concerns over rising bond yields, it has recovered recently pushed by just a few components. In the starting up, Nio acknowledged that it might perchance double the capacity of its plant in Hefei, China to 240,000 autos a year, up from 120,000 objects, with the expansion liable to be carried out by the first half of of 2022. In actual fact, the company says that the flexibility might perchance develop as many as 300,000 autos a year with extra operating shifts. This might perchance silent enable the company to cater to EV inquire, which has remained sturdy. Secondly, there admire been some particular trends for Nio’s EV behold Tesla, which posted trusty Q3 earnings and received a 100,000 automobile repeat from rental vehicle foremost Hertz. This appears to be like to be to admire boosted sentiment across the EV sector.
Now, is NIO stock poised to develop? Primarily basically based completely on our machine discovering out prognosis of trends within the stock worth over the final three years, there is a 60% likelihood of a upward thrust in NIO stock over the following month (twenty-one shopping and selling days). Search for our prognosis on Nio Likelihood Of Rise for more small print.
5 Days: NIO 1.1%, vs. S&P 500 1.2%; Underperformed market
(47% Tournament Likelihood)
- Nio stock rose 1.1% over a 5-day shopping and selling period ending 10/26/2021, compared with the broader market (S&P500) which rose by 1.2%.
- A trade of 1.1% or more over 5 shopping and selling days has a 47% match likelihood, which has occurred 367 times out of 781 times within the final three years.
Ten Days: NIO 14%, vs. S&P500 5.2%; Outperformed market
(24% match likelihood)
- Nio stock rose 14% over the final ten shopping and selling days (two weeks), compared with the broader market (S&P500) upward thrust of 5.2%.
- A trade of 14% or more over ten shopping and selling days has a 24% match likelihood, which has occurred 189 times out of 776 times within the final three years.
Twenty-One Days: NIO 10%, vs. S&P500 3%; Outperformed market
(41% match likelihood)
- Nio stock rose 10% over the final twenty-one shopping and selling days (one month), compared with the broader market (S&P500) upward thrust of 3%.
- A trade of 10% or more over twenty-one shopping and selling days has a 41% match likelihood, which has occurred 310 times out of 765 times within the final three years.
Electrical autos are the technique ahead for transportation, however selecting the particular EV stocks might even be sophisticated. Investing in Electrical Automobile Component Supplier Stocks might even be a appropriate replacement to play the narrate within the EV market.
[10/7/2021] What’s New With Nio Stock?
Nio stock (NYSE: NIO) declined by virtually 4% over the final week (5 shopping and selling days) and also remains down by about 17% over the final month. While the sell-off is pushed largely by macro components, equivalent to the Evergrande disaster in China and rising bond yields, there has genuinely been particular details on the industry front for Nio. Nio recently posted stronger than expected supply narrate, with its EV sales standing at 24,439 objects over Q3 2021, ahead of the upper stop of the company’s guidance of 23,500 objects and up virtually 2x versus final year. The company also delivered a total of 10,628 autos in September, a month-to-month picture and a year-over-year amplify of 126%. These narrate charges are in particular encouraging, as they advance despite the continuing chip shortage, which has effort production across the auto trade. So is Nio stock liable to decline extra, or are beneficial properties taking a look more doubtless? Going by historical efficiency, there is an equal likelihood of a upward thrust or fall in Nio stock over the following month after declining by 17% over the final month (21 shopping and selling days). Check out our prognosis Nio Stock Likelihood Of A Rise for more small print.
That acknowledged, we specialize in Nio silent appears to be like fairly lovely for longer-term investors. Even supposing Nio stock trades at a fairly excessive 10x consensus 2021 revenues, it might perchance also silent develop into this valuation slightly swiftly. Sales are projected to develop by about 120% this year and by virtually 65% subsequent year, per consensus estimates. Margins admire also shown an increasing trend, with sinister margins increasing from phases of round 8% in Q2 202o to round 19% in Q2 2021, that draw that Nio might perchance also silent be fairly winning as it scales up. Now with the stock down by about 37% year-to-date and by over 45% from its all-time highs, this might perhaps most up to date a great entry level for investors.
[9/22/2021] Evergrande Disaster Knocks 8% Off Nio Stock, What’s Subsequent?
Nio stock (NYSE: NIO) declined by round 8% over the final week (5 shopping and selling days) compared with the S&P 500 which fell by round -2.4% over the identical period. The stock also remains down by about 5.5% over the final month. There are just a few trends which admire hit Nio and diversified Chinese language EV stocks recently. Last week, China’s minister for trade and records technology acknowledged that the nation has “too many” EV gamers, and right here’s doubtless causing some apprehension amongst investors that the EV house might perchance opinion more interference from the Chinese language direct, given the immense regulatory crackdown on Chinese language Records superhighway firms in most up to date months. One at a time, there are concerns that China’s second-largest accurate property developer, the struggling Evergrande crew, might perchance default on its debt. The company apparently has liabilities to the tune of round $300 billion and a default might perchance impact Chinese language banks and credit markets, doubtlessly spilling over to diversified areas of the Chinese language economy. Evergrande also invested seriously in an EV subsidiary that hasn’t shipped any autos to this level and right here’s also doubtless causing some overhang on EV stocks.
Nevertheless now that Nio stock has viewed a -5.5% circulate over the final month or so, will it proceed its downward trajectory, or is a restoration coming near near? Going by historical efficiency, there is an equal likelihood of a upward thrust or fall in Nio stock over the following month. Out of 279 cases within the final three years that Nio stock noticed a 21-day decline of 5.5% or more, 142 of them resulted in NIO stock declining over the following one-month period (21 shopping and selling days). This historical sample reflects 142 out of 279, or about 51% likelihood of a drop in Nio stock over the following month. Search for our prognosis Nio Stock Likelihood Of Decline for more small print.
Calculation of ’Tournament Likelihood’ and ’Likelihood of Rise’ utilizing final three year details
- -7.9% or elevated return throughout 5 day period in 168 times out of 755; Stock rose within the following 5 days in 79 of these 168 cases
- -14% or elevated return throughout 10-day period in 120 times out of 750; Stock rose within the following 10 days in 63 of these 120 cases
- -5.5% or elevated return throughout 21-day period in 279 times out of 739; Stock rose within the following 21 days in 137 of these 279 cases
Predict practical return on Nio Stock Return: AI Predicts NIO Average and Excess Return After a Descend or Rise
Nio Stock Return (Most recent) Comparison With Peers
- 5-Day Return: TSLA top doubtless at -0.7%; NIO lowest at -7.9%
- 10-Day Return: TSLA top doubtless at -1.8%; NIO lowest at -14%
- 21-Day Return: TSLA top doubtless at 8.7%; NIO lowest at -5.5%
[9/8/2021] Nio Is Poised For A Solid September. Is The Stock A Derive?
Nio stock (NYSE: NIO) gained over 7% over the final week (5 shopping and selling days) compared with the S&P 500 which remained roughly flat over the identical period. Even supposing Nio posted used August supply numbers which dropped about 26% from July to about 5,880 objects, on tale of some supply chain constraints, issues are bother to search up. Nio’s quarterly guidance of 22,500 to 23,500 autos for Q3 2021 implies that deliveries for September might perchance jump to over 9,000 autos marking a month-to-month picture. This can prove that Nio is finally tackling the continuing automobile semiconductor shortage, which has impacted production across the auto trade. So will Nio stock proceed to rally, or is a decline taking a look more doubtless? Per the Trefis machine discovering out engine which analyzes historical stock worth details, Nio stock has an equal likelihood of a upward thrust or fall over the following month. Search for our prognosis Nio Stock Chances Of Rise for more small print.
So, is Nio stock worth brooding about for longer-term investors? We specialize in it’s. Even supposing Nio stock trades at a fairly excessive 12x consensus 2021 revenues, it might perchance also silent develop into this valuation slightly swiftly. Sales are projected to larger than double this year and narrate is liable to advance wait on in at over 65% in 2022 as effectively, per consensus estimates. The company has a pair of new launches slated for 2022, alongside with its first sedan, dubbed the ET7, which is anticipated to provide a vary of round 1,000 kilometers (621 miles). Request might perchance also silent wait on up within the future, as the Chinese language authorities desires about 20% of all new vehicle sales to advance wait on from new vitality autos that fabricate no longer hunch on fuel, from 2025 onward. Nio’s early mover earnings within the Chinese language premium EV house, and its investments in charging stations and related infrastructure, might perchance also silent give it an edge as the market expands. Nio is also poised to turn into more winning going ahead. Atrocious margins rose from phases of round 8% in Q2 202o to round 19% in Q2 2021. As revenues scale up, this might perhaps also silent relief Nio’s backside line, as effectively.
[7/28/2021] Will Chinese language Authorities Crackdown On Tech Companies Influence Nio?
Nio – with out a doubt one of China’s most treasured electric automobile firms – noticed its stock decline by about 8% in Tuesday’s shopping and selling and remains down by about 11% over the final week (5 shopping and selling days). The decline follows a broader sell-off in Chinese language stocks, as China’s regulators persevered to crack down on immense firms. Last weekend, authorities ordered foremost Chinese language on-line education suppliers to turn into nonprofits, while forbidding them from elevating funds from public markets. Chinese language immense-tech firms admire also advance beneath scrutiny. E-commerce huge Alibaba used to be recently forced to shelve the IPO of its affiliate monetary company ANT crew, while food supply platforms equivalent to Meituan are also going by stress, as the authorities now requires them to guarantee their riders with an profits that is above minimal wage, amongst diversified advantages. So might perchance also silent Nio investors worry in regards to basically the most up to date actions or does the drop within the stock worth most up to date a shopping replacement for investors?
Even supposing investors are appropriate to worry in regards to the mounting risks of investing in Chinese language stocks, given the slew of regulatory actions in most up to date months, we specialize within the sell-off in EV firms equivalent to Nio is perhaps overdone. In difference to the immense tech gamers, that are usually platform firms with notable vitality, EVs are, at the very least in a relative sense, fledgling firms that are viewed as needed to achieving China’s aggressive emissions reduction targets. One at a time, in difference to education and tech, that are predominantly home firms, catering to Chinese language clients and going by tiny international competition, EV gamers compete head-on with global names equivalent to Tesla. Moreover, in difference to Chinese language education gamers and immense-tech firms with a tiny market in a foreign country, EV gamers are also taking a look to create inroads into world markets, as effectively. Pondering this, we specialize in it’s no longer going that the direct would look to wound EV gamers in any technique.
Search for our prognosis on Nio Stock Chances Of Rise for an elaborate of the stock’s efficiency and the very top draw it’s expected to trend within the arrival weeks.
[7/6/2021] Chinese language EV Stocks
The pinnacle U.S. listed Chinese language electric automobile gamers Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) all posted picture supply figures for June, as the automobile semiconductor shortage, which previously effort production, reveals signs of abating, while inquire for EVs in China remains grand. While Nio delivered a total of 8,083 autos in June, marking a jump of over 20% versus Would possibly perchance perhaps well, Xpeng delivered a total of 6,565 autos in June, marking a sequential amplify of 15%. Nio’s Q2 numbers admire been roughly in response to the upper stop of its guidance, while Xpeng’s figures beat its guidance. Li Auto posted the largest jump, turning in 7,713 autos in June, an amplify of over 78% versus Would possibly perchance perhaps well. Growth used to be pushed by grand sales of the upgraded version of the Li-One SUV. Li Auto also beat the upper stop of its Q2 guidance of 15,500 autos, turning in a total of 17,575 autos over the quarter.
Now, despite the indisputable truth that narrate has no doubt picked up, the stocks don’t precisely seem low-cost at most up to date valuations. Nio and Xpeng trade at 15x ahead earnings, while Li Auto trades at 10x. Discontinuance to-term threats to EV valuations encompass elevated inflation and most up to date commentary by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is now apparently having a admire a look at two interest fee hikes in 2023, as an replacement of 2024. This can build stress on excessive-a pair of, excessive-narrate stocks, alongside with EV names. In our prognosis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Cease Chinese language EV Stocks Evaluation? we compare the monetary efficiency and valuations of the foremost U.S.-listed Chinese language electric automobile gamers.
[6/21/2021] Chinese language EV Stocks Fully Priced After Most recent Rally?
The stocks of Chinese language EV gamers admire surged over the final month, largely reversing the outcomes of the sell-off viewed earlier this year. Nio stock (NYSE: NIO) has rallied by virtually 38% over the final month, Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) gained 45%, and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) surged by virtually 58%. Now despite the indisputable truth that the three firms posted blended supply figures for the month of Would possibly perchance perhaps well, with Nio and Li Auto both posting declines in their deliveries versus April, and Xpeng growing sales marginally, the sales numbers doubtless weren’t as substandard as expected, brooding in regards to the semiconductor shortage that has roiled the auto trade. In difference, foremost auto gamers equivalent to GM and Ford needed to swiftly indolent or scale wait on production at a variety of flowers.
The outlook provided by the three firms used to be also stronger than expected, giving investors self belief that the worst of the semiconductor shortage is doubtless over. Li Auto has guided to 14,500 to 15,500 deliveries for the second quarter, a sequential amplify of 22% on the upper stop. The company says that it’s optimistic that exact numbers will exceed guidance, provided that it’s seeing stronger than expected orders for the upgraded version of its Li-One SUV. Nio also reiterated its Q2 2021 supply guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 autos, implying that it might perchance affirm a picture 8,200 autos in June.
Now are the stocks a cast off at most up to date phases? While the narrate outlook is no doubt grand, the stocks don’t precisely seem low-cost at most up to date valuations. Nio trades at 14x ahead earnings, while Li Auto trades at 9x, and Xpeng trades at about 16x. Discontinuance to-term threats to EV valuations encompass elevated inflation and most up to date commentary by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is now apparently having a admire a look at two interest fee hikes in 2023, as an replacement of 2024. This can build stress on excessive-a pair of, excessive-narrate stocks, alongside with EV names. In our prognosis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Cease Chinese language EV Stocks Evaluation? we compare the monetary efficiency and valuations of the foremost U.S.-listed Chinese language electric automobile gamers.
[6/2/2021] Is The Worst Of The Semiconductor Crunch Over For Chinese language EVs?
Chinese language electric automobile majors Nio (NYSE: NIO) and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) provided blended supply figures for the month of Would possibly perchance perhaps well, as they persevered to be impacted by basically the most up to date shortage of semiconductors. While Nio delivered a total of 6,711 autos in Would possibly perchance perhaps well, down 5.5% from April, Xpeng used to be in a position to develop deliveries by about 10% over the final month to 5,686 objects, despite the indisputable truth that the amount is beneath peak month-to-month sales of 6,015 autos witnessed in January. Even supposing both firms reported sturdy year-over-year narrate numbers (2x to 6x), the sequential figures are more carefully tracked for mercurial-growing firms.
Nonetheless, issues are doubtlessly going to get better from right here. Nio, for instance, reiterated its Q2 2021 supply guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 autos, implying that it might perchance affirm as many as 8,200 autos in June, a month-to-month picture. Here is doubtless a hallmark that the worldwide automobile semiconductor shortage is easing off, and also a designate that Nio is conserving its beget within the Chinese language EV market, despite mounting competition. Nio stock rallied by virtually 10% in Tuesday’s shopping and selling, while Xpeng’s stock used to be up by about 8% following the picture.
Despite basically the most up to date rally, the stocks might perchance silent be worth brooding about at most up to date phases. Nio stock remains down by about 20% year-to-date while Xpeng is down by about 22%. Search for our prognosis on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Cease Chinese language EV Stocks Evaluation? for an elaborate of the monetary and valuation metrics of the three U.S. listed Chinese language EV gamers.
[5/21/2021] How Cease Chinese language EV Stocks Evaluation?
U.S. listed Chinese language EV gamers Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) admire underperformed this year, with their stocks down by roughly 30% each and every, since early January. So how fabricate these stocks compare post the correction? While Nio and Xpeng remain pricier compared with Li Auto, they doubtlessly interpret their elevated valuation for just a few reasons. Here is a small bit more about these firms.
Our prognosis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Cease Chinese language EV Stocks Evaluation? compares the monetary efficiency and valuation of the foremost U.S. listed Chinese language electric automobile gamers.
Nio remains basically the most richly valued of the three firms, shopping and selling at about 10.5x ahead earnings. Revenues tend to develop by over 110% this year, per consensus estimates. Longer-term narrate is also liable to remain grand, given the company’s broad product portfolio (it already has three devices accessible on the market), its weird innovations equivalent to battery swapping, its global expansion plans, and investments into independent riding. Nio ticket also has great more buzz, with the company viewed as basically the most state rival to Tesla in China. Atrocious margins stood at 19.5% in Q1 2021, up from a negative 12% a year within the past.
Xpeng trades at about 10x projected 2021 revenues. Sales narrate is projected to be the strongest amongst the three firms, rising by over 150% this year, per consensus estimates. Apart from its elevated projected narrate, investors admire been assigning a premium to the company on account of its development within the independent riding house. Xpeng currently sells the G3 SUV and the P7 sedan and its new P5 compact sedan is liable to hit the roads later this year. Even supposing Xpeng’s sinister margins admire improved, rising to about 11% over Q1, versus negative phases a year within the past, they are silent beneath Nio’s margins.
Li Auto trades at glorious 6x projected 2021 revenues, the lowest of the three firms. Revenues tend to roughly double this year, with sinister margins standing at 17.5% as of Q4 2020 (the company has but to picture Q1 outcomes). The lower valuation is doubtless on account of the company’s specialize in a single product – the Li Xiang ONE, an electrical SUV that also has a small fuel engine and also on account of the truth that Li Auto is at the wait on of rivals in the case of independent riding tech.
[10/30/2020] How Cease Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto Evaluation
The Chinese language electric automobile dwelling is booming, with China-basically based producers accounting for over 50% of worldwide EV deliveries. Request for EVs in China is liable to remain sturdy as the Chinese language authorities desires about 25% of all new autos bought within the nation to be electric by 2025, up from roughly 5% at most up to date.  While Tesla is a prime within the Chinese language luxurious EV market pushed by production at its new Shanghai facility, Nio, Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) – three fairly younger U.S. listed Chinese language electric automobile gamers, admire also been gaining traction. In our prognosis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Cease Chinese language EV Stocks Evaluation?we compare the monetary efficiency and valuation of the foremost U.S. listed Chinese language electric automobile gamers. Parts of the prognosis are summarized beneath.
Overview Of Nio, Li Auto & Xpeng’s Alternate
Nio, which used to be founded in 2014, currently offers three premium electric SUVs, ES8, ES6, and EC6, that are priced starting up at about $50k. The company is engaged on growing self-riding technology and also offers diversified weird innovations equivalent to Battery as a Carrier (BaaS) – which permits clients to subscribe for vehicle batteries, in decision to paying for them upfront. While the company has scaled up production, it hasn’t advance with out challenges, as it recalled about 5,000 autos final year after reviews of a pair of fires.
Li Auto sells Extended-Vary Electrical Autos, that are in fact EVs that even admire a small fuel engine that might perchance generate extra electric vitality for the battery. This reduces the need for EV-charging infrastructure, which is currently tiny in China. The company’s hybrid contrivance appears to be like to be to be paying off – with its Li ONE SUV, which is priced at about $46,000 – rating as the stop-selling SUV within the brand new vitality automobile section in China in September 2020. The new vitality section comprises fuel cell, electric, and bolt-in hybrid autos.
Xpeng produces and sells premium electric autos alongside with the G3 SUV and the P7 four-door sedan, that are roughly positioned as rivals to Tesla’s Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan, despite the indisputable truth that they are more practical, with the fundamental version of the G3 starting up at about $22,000 post subsidies. The G3 SUV used to be amongst the stop 3 Electrical SUVs in the case of sales in China in 2019. While the company started production in gradual 2018, firstly by a take care of a longtime automaker, it has started production at its beget factory within the Guangdong province.
How Absorb The Deliveries, Revenues & Margins Trended
Nio delivered about 21k autos in 2019, up from about 11k autos in 2018. This compares to Xpeng which delivered about 13k autos in 2019 and Li Auto which delivered about 1k autos, brooding about that it started production supreme gradual final year. While Nio’s deliveries this year might perchance technique about 40k objects, Li Auto and Xpeng tend to affirm round 25k autos with Li Auto seeing the top doubtless narrate. Over 2019, Nio’s Revenues stood at $1.1 billion, compared with about $40 million for Li Auto and $330 million for Xpeng. Nio’s Revenues tend to develop 95% this year, while Xpeng’s Revenues tend to develop by about 120%. All three firms remain deeply lossmaking as bills related to R&D and SG&A remain excessive relative to Revenues. Nio’s Derive Margins stood at -195% in 2019, Li Auto’s margins stood at about -860% while Xpeng’s margins stood at -160%. Nonetheless, margins tend to make stronger sharply in 2020, as volumes cast off up.
Nio’s Market Cap stood at about $37 billion as of October 28, 2020, with its stock worth rising by about 7x year-to-date on account of surging investor interest in EV stocks. Li Auto and Xpeng, which admire been both listed within the U.S. round August as they regarded to capitalize on surging valuations, admire a market cap of about $15 billion and $14 billion, respectively. On a relative basis, Nio trades at about 15x projected 2020 Revenues, Li Auto trades at about 12x, while Xpeng trades at about 20x.
While valuations are no doubt excessive, investors are doubtless making a wager that these firms will proceed to develop within the home market, while finally playing an even bigger function within the worldwide EV house leveraging China’s fairly low-cost manufacturing, and the nation’s ecosystem of battery and auto substances suppliers. Of the three firms, Nio might perchance be the safer wager, brooding about its a small bit longer observe picture, elevated Revenues, and investments in technology equivalent to battery swaps and self-riding. Li Auto also appears to be like lovely brooding about its mercurial narrate – pushed by the uptake of its hybrid powertrains – and comparatively lovely valuation of about 12x 2020 Revenues.
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