Li Auto Stock Was Up 8% Last Week, Is There More Upside?

A label of Chinese electric car firm Li Auto is seen in its retail store at a attempting mall in … [+] Beijing on August 12, 2021. (Report by JADE GAO / AFP) (Report by JADE GAO/AFP through Getty Photos)


AFP through Getty Photos

Li Auto stock (NASDAQ: LI) rose by almost 8% over the closing week, when when in contrast with the broader S&P 500 which won about 1% over the same duration. On the different hand, the stock serene remains down by about 7% over the closing month (about 21 buying and selling days). One of the crucial up-to-date positive aspects reach because the firm reported quite greater than anticipated deliveries for Q3 2021, with total sales standing at 25,116 autos, up almost 190% year over year. Unhurried closing month, the firm decrease its supply steering for Q3 from slightly a pair of 25,500 to 26,000 autos to about 24,500, because of the continuing chip shortage. Furthermore, the broader Chinese indices acquire moreover risen over the closing week, improving quite from the promote-off they noticed closing month because of the Evergrande disaster (gaze below) and moreover as fears regarding the authorities’s crackdown on the tech sector are easing.

Now, is Li Auto stock poised to develop extra? In step with our machine studying analysis of traits in the historical stock value, there is a 53% chance of a upward push in LI stock over the following month (twenty-one buying and selling days). Gape our analysis on Li Auto Stock Likelihood Of Upward push for added facts.

Five Days: LI 8.4%, vs. S&P 500 1%; Outperformed market

(17% occasion chance)

  • Li Auto stock rose 8.4% over a 5-day buying and selling duration ending 10/8/2021, when when in contrast with the broader market (S&P500) which rose 1% over the same duration.
  • A alternate of 8% or extra over 5 buying and selling days has a 17% occasion chance, which has took place 81 conditions out of 482 in the closing two years.

Ten Days: LI 9%, vs. S&P 500 -1.4%; Outperformed market

(19% occasion chance)

  • Li Auto stock rose 9% over the closing ten buying and selling days (two weeks), when when in contrast with the broader market (S&P500) which declined by 1.4%.
  • A alternate of 9% or extra over ten buying and selling days has a 19% occasion chance, which has took place 92 conditions out of 482 in the closing two years.

Twenty-One Days: LI -7%, vs. S&P 500 -2.5%; Underperformed market

(18% occasion chance)

  • Li Auto stock declined 7% over the closing twenty-one buying and selling days (about one month), when when in contrast with the broader market (S&P500) which declined by 2.5%
  • A alternate of -7% or extra over twenty-one buying and selling days has an 18% occasion chance, which has took place 86 conditions out of 482 in the closing two years.

Electrical autos are the future of transportation, nonetheless deciding on the moral EV stocks can also even be not easy. Investing in Electrical Automobile Ingredient Dealer Stocks can also even be a appropriate different to play the boost in the EV market.

[9/23/2021] Li Auto Stock Hit By Chip Shortage And Evergrande Crisis, But It Could maybe also Be Time To Resolve

Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) stock declined by almost 7.5% in Monday’s buying and selling and remains down by 9.5% over the closing week. There are a pair of things that drove the promote-off. Before every little thing, Li decrease its steering for the fresh quarter, noting that it expects to teach about 24,500 autos, down from its previous steering of 25,500 to 26,000 autos, because of the shortage of clear semiconductor ingredients. This implies that September deliveries would stand at roughly 6,500 items – a decline of about 30% versus August. Furthermore, closing week, China’s minister for industry and files technology acknowledged that the country has “too many” EV gamers, and here is stoking fears that the EV situation would possibly perchance maybe gaze extra interference from the Chinese tell going forward. Individually, there are concerns that China’s second-largest right estate developer, the struggling Evergrande team, would possibly perchance maybe default on its debt. The firm it sounds as if has liabilities to the tune of around $300 billion and a default would possibly perchance maybe affect Chinese banks and credit markets, and this resulted in a broader promote-off in Chinese and world stocks on Monday.

So, is Li Auto stock value a respect following the latest promote-off? We judge the stock is value a respect. EV ask of clearly isn’t an subject in China as EV deliveries in August surged by 200% year-over-year to 249,000 across manufacturers. Furthermore, the shortage of the advise chips that Li Auto looks waiting on looks attributable to the fresh Covid surge in Malaysia, quite than by structural concerns. This would resolve in the arrival months, helping the firm scale up manufacturing. Li’s valuation moreover remains beautiful relative to a good deal of Chinese electric car gamers, buying and selling at about 8x projected 2021 earnings, when when in contrast with Nio, which trades at about 10x, and Xpeng which trades at over 11x. Li Auto stock moreover remains down by about 23% from its June 2021 highs, at this time buying and selling at about $27 per portion, presenting an inexpensive entry level for investors.

[8/31/2021] Li Auto Stock Updates

Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) posted a quite wider than anticipated get loss for Q2 2021, though its revenues and outlook for Q3 beat estimates. The firm delivered a total of 17,575 autos in Q2 marking a sequential extend of about 40% and a year-over-year extend of about 166%, pushed by surging ask of for the upgraded version of the firm’s Li-One SUV. Automobile sales came in at about $759 million marking an extend of about 42% sequentially. Atrocious profit margins stood at 18.9%, up from 13.3% in Q2 2020 and 17.3% in Q1 2021, indicating that Li Auto is producing its autos remarkable extra efficiently.

Li Auto’s outlook used to be moreover solid, with the firm awaiting deliveries to reach aid in at between 25,000 and 26,000 for Q3 2021, marking a sequential extend of over 45% on the mid-level. The steering is highly encouraging as it comes no topic elevated opponents in the Chinese EV market and the continuing semiconductor shortage which has constrained manufacturing in the auto industry. Furthermore, Li’s projected boost is moreover stronger than its opponents equivalent to Nio which has easiest guided for 10% sequential boost on the mid-level of its steering for Q3, and Xpeng which initiatives about 25% boost. Li moreover expects total earnings to upward push to between $1.08 billion and $1.12 billion for Q3.

So is Li Auto stock value pondering at fresh stages? Even though the stock has rallied by around 70% from its Could maybe also 2021 lows to about $29 at this time, it serene trades at lawful about 9.5x projected 2021 revenues, which is decrease than opponents equivalent to Nio (NYSE: NIO) and Xpeng, which change at about 11x and 13x, respectively. We judge the decrease plenty of and stronger shut to-duration of time boost prospects construct Li Auto a solid deem at fresh stages. Gape our analysis on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Discontinue Chinese EV Stocks Compare? for a high level opinion of the financial and valuation metrics of the three Chinese EV gamers.

[8/3/2021] Li Auto, Nio, Xpeng: How Did Chinese EV Avid gamers Fare In July?

U.S. listed Chinese electric car gamers provided updates on their supply figures for July, with Li Auto taking the shatter space, while Nio (NYSE: NIO), which constantly delivered extra autos than Li and Xpeng till June, falling to third location. Li Auto delivered a file 8,589 autos, an extend of about 11% versus June, pushed by a solid uptake for its refreshed Li-One EVs. Xpeng moreover posted file deliveries of 8,040, up a solid 22% versus June, pushed by stronger sales of its P7 sedan. Nio delivered 7,931 autos, a decline of about 2% versus June amid decrease sales of the firm’s mid-fluctuate ES6s SUV and the EC6s coupe SUV, that are probably going by contrivance of stronger opponents from Tesla, which only in the near previous decreased costs on its Model Y which competes straight with Nio’s offerings.

Whereas the stocks of all three corporations won on Monday, following the availability reviews, they’ve underperformed the broader markets year-to-date on story of China’s newest crackdown on worthy-tech corporations, as neatly as a rotation out of boost stocks into cyclical stocks. That acknowledged, we judge the longer-duration of time outlook for the Chinese EV sector remains sure, because the auto semiconductor shortage, which previously disaster manufacturing, is exhibiting signs of abating, while ask of for EVs in China remains valuable, pushed by the authorities’s policy of promoting lovely autos. In our analysis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Discontinue Chinese EV Stocks Compare? we overview the financial performance and valuations of the main U.S.-listed Chinese electric car gamers.

[7/21/2021] What’s New With Li Auto Stock?

Li Auto stock (NASDAQ: LI) declined by about 6% over the closing week (5 buying and selling days), when when in contrast with the S&P 500 which used to be down by about 1% over the same duration. The promote-off comes as U.S. regulators face rising rigidity to put into effect the Preserving International Corporations Responsible Act, which would possibly perchance maybe result in the delisting of some Chinese corporations from U.S. exchanges in the occasion that they attain not follow U.S. auditing guidelines. Even though this isn’t advise to Li, most U.S.-listed Chinese stocks acquire seen declines. Individually, China’s high technology corporations, in conjunction with Alibaba and Didi Worldwide, acquire moreover reach below elevated scrutiny by home regulators, and here is moreover probably impacting corporations bask in Li Auto. So will the declines continue for Li Auto stock, or is a rally having a respect extra probably? Per the Trefis Machine studying engine, which analyzes historical value files, Li Auto stock has a 61% chance of a upward push over the following month. Gape our analysis on Li Auto Stock Potentialities Of Upward push for added facts.

The main image for Li Auto is moreover having a respect greater. Li is seeing ask of surge, pushed by the initiating of an upgraded version of the Li-One SUV. In June, deliveries rose by a solid 78% sequentially and Li Auto moreover beat the greater shatter of its Q2 steering of 15,500 autos, delivering a total of 17,575 autos over the quarter. Li’s deliveries moreover eclipsed fellow U.S.-listed Chinese electric car startup Xpeng in June. Things must serene continue to get better. The worst of the auto semiconductor shortage – which constrained auto manufacturing over the last few months – now looks over, with Taiwan’s TSMC, one in every of the sphere’s largest semiconductor makers, indicating that it would possibly well ramp up manufacturing significantly in Q3. This would back enhance Li’s sales extra.

[7/6/2021] Chinese EV Avid gamers Post File Deliveries

The head U.S. listed Chinese electric car gamers Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) all posted file supply figures for June, because the auto semiconductor shortage, which previously disaster manufacturing, shows signs of abating, while ask of for EVs in China remains solid. Whereas Nio delivered a total of 8,083 autos in June, marking a soar of over 20% versus Could maybe also, Xpeng delivered a total of 6,565 autos in June, marking a sequential extend of 15%. Nio’s Q2 numbers were roughly in step with the greater shatter of its steering, while Xpeng’s figures beat its steering. Li Auto posted the largest soar, delivering 7,713 autos in June, an extend of over 78% versus Could maybe also. Growth used to be pushed by solid sales of the upgraded version of the Li-One SUV. Li Auto moreover beat the greater shatter of its Q2 steering of 15,500 autos, delivering a total of 17,575 autos over the quarter.

Now, though boost has completely picked up, the stocks don’t exactly appear low-value at fresh valuations. Nio and Xpeng change at 15x forward earnings, while Li Auto trades at 10x. Shut to-duration of time threats to EV valuations embody elevated inflation and newest commentary by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is now it sounds as if having a respect at two curiosity price hikes in 2023, rather then 2024. This would save rigidity on high-plenty of, high-boost stocks, in conjunction with EV names. In our analysis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Discontinue Chinese EV Stocks Compare? we overview the financial performance and valuations of the main U.S.-listed Chinese electric car gamers.

[6/21/2021] Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced After Most up-to-date Rally?

The stocks of Chinese EV gamers acquire surged over the closing month, largely reversing the effects of the promote-off seen earlier this year. Nio stock (NYSE: NIO) has rallied by almost 38% over the closing month, Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) won 45%, and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) surged by almost 58%. Now though the three corporations posted mixed supply figures for the month of Could maybe also, with Nio and Li Auto both posting declines in their deliveries versus April, and Xpeng rising sales marginally, the sales numbers probably weren’t as harmful as anticipated, pondering the semiconductor shortage that has roiled the auto industry. In distinction, main auto gamers equivalent to GM and Ford had to rapid idle or scale aid manufacturing at plenty of flowers.

The outlook provided by the three corporations used to be moreover stronger than anticipated, giving investors confidence that the worst of the semiconductor shortage is probably over. Li Auto has guided to 14,500 to 15,500 deliveries for the second quarter, a sequential extend of 22% on the greater shatter. The firm says that it is miles optimistic that true numbers will exceed steering, provided that it is miles seeing stronger than anticipated orders for the upgraded version of its Li-One SUV. Nio moreover reiterated its Q2 2021 supply steering of 21,000 to 22,000 autos, implying that it would possibly well teach a file 8,200 autos in June.

Now are the stocks a take at fresh stages? Whereas the boost outlook is completely solid, the stocks don’t exactly appear low-value at fresh valuations. Nio trades at 14x forward earnings, while Li Auto trades at 9x, and Xpeng trades at about 16x. Shut to-duration of time threats to EV valuations embody elevated inflation and newest commentary by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is now it sounds as if having a respect at two curiosity price hikes in 2023, rather then 2024. This would save rigidity on high-plenty of, high-boost stocks, in conjunction with EV names. In our analysis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Discontinue Chinese EV Stocks Compare? we overview the financial performance and valuations of the main U.S.-listed Chinese electric car gamers.

[6/2/2021] Is The Worst Of The Semiconductor Crunch Over For Chinese EVs?

Chinese electric car majors Nio (NYSE: NIO) and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) provided mixed supply figures for the month of Could maybe also, as they endured to be impacted by the fresh shortage of semiconductors. Whereas Nio delivered a total of 6,711 autos in Could maybe also, down 5.5% from April, Xpeng used to be ready to develop deliveries by about 10% over the closing month to 5,686 items, though the number is below height monthly sales of 6,015 autos witnessed in January. Even though both corporations reported valuable year-over-year boost numbers (2x to 6x), the sequential figures are extra intently tracked for prompt-rising corporations.

On the different hand, things are perchance going to get better from here. Nio, as an illustration, reiterated its Q2 2021 supply steering of 21,000 to 22,000 autos, implying that it would possibly well teach as many as 8,200 autos in June, a monthly file. That is probably an indicator that the realm automobile semiconductor shortage is easing off, and moreover a tag that Nio is retaining its accept as true with in the Chinese EV market, no topic mounting opponents. Nio stock rallied by almost 10% in Tuesday’s buying and selling, while Xpeng’s stock used to be up by about 8% following the document.

Despite the latest rally, the stocks would possibly perchance maybe serene be value pondering at fresh stages. Nio stock remains down by about 20% year-to-date while Xpeng is down by about 22%. Gape our analysis on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Discontinue Chinese EV Stocks Compare? for a high level opinion of the financial and valuation metrics of the three U.S. listed Chinese EV gamers.

[5/21/2021] How Discontinue Chinese EV Stocks Compare?

U.S. listed Chinese EV gamers Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) acquire underperformed this year, with their stocks down by roughly 30% every, since early January. So how attain these stocks overview submit the correction? Whereas Nio and Xpeng remain pricier when when in contrast with Li Auto, they perchance define their elevated valuation for a pair of causes. Here is form of extra about these corporations.

Our analysis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Discontinue Chinese EV Stocks Compare? compares the financial performance and valuation of the main U.S. listed Chinese electric car gamers.

Nio remains the most richly valued of the three corporations, buying and selling at about 10.5x forward earnings. Revenues have a tendency to develop by over 110% this year, per consensus estimates. Longer-duration of time boost is moreover probably to remain solid, given the firm’s broad product portfolio (it already has three items in the marketplace), its strange improvements equivalent to battery swapping, its world enlargement plans, and investments into self reliant riding. Nio label moreover has rather a lot extra buzz, with the firm considered because the most advise rival to Tesla in China. Atrocious margins stood at 19.5% in Q1 2021, up from a destructive 12% a year in the past.

Xpeng trades at about 10x projected 2021 revenues. Sales boost is projected to be the strongest among the three corporations, rising by over 150% this year, per consensus estimates. Moreover its elevated projected boost, investors acquire been assigning a top price to the firm because of its growth in the self reliant riding situation. Xpeng at this time sells the G3 SUV and the P7 sedan, and its contemporary P5 compact sedan is probably to hit the roads later this year. Even though Xpeng’s injurious margins acquire improved, rising to about 11% over Q1, versus destructive stages a year in the past, they’re serene below Nio’s margins.

Li Auto trades at lawful 6x projected 2021 revenues, the bottom of the three corporations. Revenues have a tendency to roughly double this year, with injurious margins standing at 17.5% as of Q4 2020 (the firm has yet to document Q1 outcomes). The decrease valuation is probably because of the firm’s level of curiosity on a single product – the Li Xiang ONE, an electric SUV that moreover has a tiny gasoline engine and moreover because of the truth that Li Auto is on the aid of opponents by system of self reliant riding tech.

[10/30/2020] How Discontinue Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto Compare

The Chinese electric car situation is booming, with China-basically basically based manufacturers accounting for over 50% of world EV deliveries. Demand for EVs in China is probably to remain valuable because the Chinese authorities needs about 25% of all contemporary autos provided in the country to be electric by 2025, up from roughly 5% at fresh. [1] Whereas Tesla is a prime in the Chinese luxurious EV market pushed by manufacturing at its contemporary Shanghai facility, Nio, Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) – three slightly young U.S. listed Chinese electric car gamers, acquire moreover been gaining traction. In our analysis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Discontinue Chinese EV Stocks Compare?we overview the financial performance and valuation of the main U.S. listed Chinese electric car gamers. Parts of the analysis are summarized below.

Overview Of Nio, Li Auto & Xpeng’s Industry

Nio, which used to be basically based in 2014, at this time provides three top price electric SUVs, ES8, ES6, and EC6, that are priced starting at about $50k. The firm is engaged on developing self-riding technology and moreover provides a good deal of strange improvements equivalent to Battery as a Service (BaaS) – which enables customers to subscribe for car batteries, quite than paying for them upfront. Whereas the firm has scaled up manufacturing, it hasn’t reach without challenges, as it recalled about 5,000 autos closing year after reviews of plenty of fires.

Li Auto sells Extended-Range Electrical Autos, that are in point of fact EVs that moreover acquire a tiny gasoline engine that would possibly perchance generate extra electric vitality for the battery. This reduces the need for EV-charging infrastructure, which is at this time tiny in China. The firm’s hybrid technique looks paying off – with its Li ONE SUV, which is priced at about $46,000 – rating because the shatter-selling SUV in the contemporary vitality car section in China in September 2020. The contemporary vitality section entails gasoline cell, electric, and move-in hybrid autos.

Xpeng produces and sells top price electric autos in conjunction with the G3 SUV and the P7 four-door sedan, that are roughly positioned as opponents to Tesla’s Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan, though they’re extra cheap, with the primary version of the G3 starting at about $22,000 submit subsidies. The G3 SUV used to be among the shatter 3 Electrical SUVs by system of sales in China in 2019. Whereas the firm started manufacturing in boring 2018, in the starting keep through a address an established automaker, it has started manufacturing at its accept as true with factory in the Guangdong province.

How Have The Deliveries, Revenues & Margins Trended

Nio delivered about 21k autos in 2019, up from about 11k autos in 2018. This compares to Xpeng which delivered about 13k autos in 2019 and Li Auto which delivered about 1k autos, pondering that it started manufacturing easiest boring closing year. Whereas Nio’s deliveries this year would possibly perchance maybe skill about 40k items, Li Auto and Xpeng have a tendency to teach around 25k autos with Li Auto seeing the supreme boost. Over 2019, Nio’s Revenues stood at $1.1 billion, when when in contrast with about $40 million for Li Auto and $330 million for Xpeng. Nio’s Revenues have a tendency to develop 95% this year, while Xpeng’s Revenues have a tendency to develop by about 120%. All three corporations remain deeply lossmaking as costs linked to R&D and SG&A remain high relative to Revenues. Nio’s Net Margins stood at -195% in 2019, Li Auto’s margins stood at about -860% while Xpeng’s margins stood at -160%. On the different hand, margins have a tendency to present a exhaust to sharply in 2020, as volumes deem up.

Valuation

Nio’s Market Cap stood at about $37 billion as of October 28, 2020, with its stock value rising by about 7x year-to-date because of surging investor curiosity in EV stocks. Li Auto and Xpeng, that acquire been both listed in the U.S. around August as they perceived to capitalize on surging valuations, acquire a market cap of about $15 billion and $14 billion, respectively. On a relative basis, Nio trades at about 15x projected 2020 Revenues, Li Auto trades at about 12x, while Xpeng trades at about 20x.

Whereas valuations are completely high, investors are probably betting that these corporations will continue to develop in the home market, while at closing enjoying a elevated role in the realm EV situation leveraging China’s slightly low-value manufacturing, and the country’s ecosystem of battery and auto ingredients suppliers. Of the three corporations, Nio incessantly is the safer bet, pondering its quite longer be conscious file, elevated Revenues, and investments in technology equivalent to battery swaps and self-riding. Li Auto moreover seems beautiful pondering its fast boost – pushed by the uptake of its hybrid powertrains – and comparatively beautiful valuation of about 12x 2020 Revenues.

What whenever you’re having a respect for a extra balanced portfolio as an alternative? Here’s a high quality portfolio that’s overwhelmed the market constantly since 2016.

Make investments with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios

Gape all Trefis Imprint Estimates

Read Extra

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here