Nio Stock Updates: Mixed Q4 Earnings & Outlook

In this photo illustration a NIO logo of a Chinese car...

UKRAINE – 2021/02/08: On this record illustration a NIO ticket of a Chinese language automobile manufacturer is seen on … [+] a cell cell phone and a non-public pc display. (Portray Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket by device of Getty Images)


SOPA Images/LightRocket by device of Getty Images

Chinese language luxury electric car maker Nio (NYSE: NIO) revealed a blended field of Q4 2020 outcomes on Monday. Whereas the corporate’s loss per American Depositary Share became once wider than expected at about -$0.14, revenues got right here in a chunk of ahead of expectations growing 46.7% sequentially to about $1.02 billion, pushed by stronger deliveries of the ES8, ES6, and EC6 autos. Nio’s stock became once down by about 5% in pre-market Trading on Tuesday, possible attributable to the corporate’s lighter-than-expected guidance.

Nio expects to elevate between 20,000 and 20,500 autos in Q1 2021, marking an expand of about 17% at the midpoint from Q4 2020. [1] Focused on that the corporate has already delivered 7,225 autos in January, gross sales over February and March are usually a chunk of weaker in comparison with January. Though right here’s possibly attributable to companies final shut thru the Lunar New year pageant interval that took plot in early February, it wants to be effectively-known that competitors within the electrical SUV residence in China will possible be mounting. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) lately started deliveries of a locally made model of its Mannequin Y compact SUV. The auto is somewhat competitively priced and will put force on luxury EV avid gamers akin to Nio. One by one, the corporate has indicated that a shortage in semiconductors and batteries is possible to prick its manufacturing over Q2 2021 to 7,500 autos monthly, down from 10,000.

Peek our evaluation on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Make Chinese language EV Stocks Compare? for an overview of the financial and valuation metrics of three predominant Chinese language EV avid gamers.

[Updated 2/8/2021] Will Tesla’s Mannequin Y Damage Nio and Li Auto?

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is starting deliveries of a locally made model of its Mannequin Y compact SUV in China. Will this affect high-flying Chinese language electric car makers Nio (NYSE: NIO) and Li Auto – who focuses on SUVs and dangle gained loads of traction within the Chinese language market in present quarters. It seems like it. There had been signs of a slowdown for both EV avid gamers in their January 2021 transport figures. Deliveries of Li Auto’s Li-One SUV declined by 12% versus December to 5,379. Nio, too, saw transport voice in January gradual to three% in comparison with December, when deliveries grew by around 30%. Whereas these trends might perchance well well well not fully be tied to Tesla’s entry into the crossover market, Tesla is anticipated to accumulate force on both companies.

Tesla has been gaining flooring in China. It sold over 23,000 locally made Mannequin 3 autos in China in December – that’s extra autos than the broad three EV startups Nio, Li Auto, and Xpeng put collectively. Now the Mannequin Y is arguably going to be extra fashioned in comparison with the Mannequin 3, pondering Chinese language buyer’s desire for crossovers and SUVs. Though the Mannequin Y will not be going to qualify for China’s nationwide subsidy for electric autos, not just like the Mannequin 3 sedan, Tesla has also priced the car competitively, starting at about RMB 339,900 ($52,500). That’s below the RMB 353,600 backed starting tag for Nio’s EC6 SUV, and a chunk of ahead of the RMB 328,000 backed tag for Li Auto’s SUVs. Tesla’s stronger world ticket record and instrument facets might perchance well well well create its autos noteworthy extra beautiful to Chinese language customers. Tesla also has the scale to gain on these companies within the SUV market. Its Shanghai plant which started operations in unhurried 2019 is possible to execute as noteworthy as half of 1,000,000 autos this year. When put next, Nio is having a see to expand manufacturing skill to about 150,000 objects.

Then all over again, Nio and Li Auto attain dangle some advantages. Charging infrastructure stays runt in China, therefore Nio is having a bet broad on modular batteries for its EVs that will additionally be swapped out in a subject of minutes, helping to prick abet fluctuate fright whereas providing batteries as a provider (BaaS) under a subscription program. Similarly, Li’s focal point is on autos that dangle a tiny gasoline engine that might perchance well well generate extra electric energy for the battery, lowering reliance on EV-charging infrastructure. These companies even dangle the backing of the Chinese language authorities and broad tech companies and this might perchance well well well demonstrate an profit not accurate from the angle of thought the market greater, nonetheless also from a regulatory standpoint. For instance, Nio’s backers embody Tencent and Baidu. The company has also been bailed out by the Chinese language authorities within the past.

Peek our evaluation on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Make Chinese language EV Stocks Compare? for an overview of the financial and valuation metrics of three predominant Chinese language EV avid gamers.

[1/11/2021] Is Nio Noteworthy Of A $100 Billion Valuation?

Nio stock has rallied by over 15% over the final week, amid anticipation ahead of the corporate’s annual Nio day match that became once held on Saturday. Nio’s market cap now stands at a whopping $93 billion- practically as noteworthy as Widespread Motors and Ford blended. Does Nio warrant the kind of valuation? The company is really growing immediate, with Income poised to double to about $5 billion in 2021 with deliveries growing immediate (Nio delivered a file 7,000 cars in December). The addressable market will possible be growing like a flash, pondering that China – Nio’s home nation – has field a purpose that 25% of automobile gross sales by 2025 must be unusual energy autos that need to not purely gasoline-pushed. That being talked about, is Nio building a aggressive profit to clarify its present valuation and fend off opponents as the market will get extra crowded?

Nio looks to be innovating in two key areas – particularly battery technology and self-driving instrument, and right here’s a broad half of the legend driving the stock. Nio is having a bet broad on modular batteries for its EVs that will additionally be swapped out in a subject of minutes, helping to prick abet fluctuate fright whereas providing batteries as a provider (BaaS) under a subscription program. Then all over again, right here’s not going to present the corporate an edge, as somewhat about a avid gamers might perchance well well with out wretchedness replicate this. Truly, China’s EV protection encourages building in battery swapping. EVs priced above RMB300,000 (around $46,000) are granted subsidies fully within the occasion that they’ve a swapping option. Nio has also unveiled a denser battery pack with 150 kWh of skill (up from 100kWh at the moment). This battery option will possible be accessible fully in unhurried 2022 – practically 2 years out – and it’s conceivable that somewhat about a avid gamers might perchance well well well even dangle equal skill batteries by then, working with mainstream battery cell suppliers akin to CATL.

The company spent a lawful deal of time ultimately of its Nio Day match discussing the self-driving tech on its unusual sedan due in 2022 and a connected monthly subscription program. The focal point regarded as if it might perchance possibly well be extra on the hardware akin to high-decision cameras, lidar sensors, and Nvidia processors – all of that are usually accessible to most somewhat about a automakers. Then all over again, what really presents companies an edge in self-driving is the quality of instrument and the provision of gigantic amounts of recordsdata (miles pushed) to present a consume to algorithms. For standpoint, Tesla has logged a entire of three billion independent miles as of ultimate April whereas Google’s Waymo logged about 20 million miles. It’s not optimistic how Nio will fare on these counts.

Overall, whereas Nio is really growing immediate, building a ticket that’s turning into synonymous with luxury Chinese language EVs, its valuation looks effectively off in our peek, as we don’t ogle a sustainable aggressive profit but. Nio now trades at about 18.6x consensus 2021 Revenues, which implies that it is valued equally to pricey Tesla, whose sturdy instrument and self-driving capabilities partly clarify its valuation.

[12/15/2020] Why Has Nio Stock Been Trending Lower

Chinese language top price Electric car maker Nio has seen its stock decline by practically 20% over the final two weeks, falling to stages of around $41 per share despite posting a resounding transport quantity for the month of November with gross sales extra than doubling year-over-year to 5,291 objects. Whereas half of the decline is possible attributable to a couple profit booking after an over 10x rally this year, Nio’s transfer to elevate about $2.65 billion by device of a sizeable secondary share providing also injure the stock. The providing became once priced at about $39 per American depositary shares, a reduction to the market tag of about $42 as of Friday’s shut. That talked about, this wants to be a accumulate optimistic for the corporate within the lengthy-bustle. The funding quiet comes at beautiful valuations (Nio trades at a whopping 23x projected 2020 Income, ahead of Tesla) and dilution of present shareholders is runt. Moreover, the funds might perchance well well well quiet give the corporate a pleased money cushion, with the proceeds possible to be liable to fund R&D for ticket spanking unusual autos and independent driving technology and to create bigger the corporate’s gross sales community.

[Updated 11/18/2020] Is Nio Overrated?

Nio – the head price Chinese language electric car manufacturer – reported its Q3 2020 outcomes on Tuesday, posting a smaller than expected quarterly loss, pushed by file deliveries and better margins. Whereas Revenues rose by 22% sequentially to RMB 4.53 billion (about $667 million), nasty margins expanded by about 480 foundation facets to 12.9% pushed by decrease subject subject price and better manufacturing effectivity. Nio continues to dangle the profit of sturdy interrogate and incentives for EVs in China, guiding that it might perchance possibly well elevate between 16,500 to 17,000 autos over Q4. This translates accurate into a sequential voice of no lower than 35%. [2]

Peek our evaluation Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Make Chinese language EV Stocks Compare? which compares the financial efficiency and valuation of the principle U.S. listed Chinese language electric car avid gamers.

Despite the stronger than expected outcomes and Q4 guidance, we deem Nio stock looks overrated. The stock is up by over 12x year-to-date and trades at about 27x projected 2020 Revenues. When put next, Tesla – a extra feeble EV player, with sturdy instrument capabilities and growing publicity to China – trades at about 13x projected gross sales. Whereas Nio’s voice charges are indubitably greater than Tesla’s, it is on the total riskier pondering the intense competitors within the Chinese language EV market, which has loads of a entire bunch of producers.

[Updated 11/16/2020] As Nio Stock Continues To Surge, Are Investors Getting Ahead Of Themselves?

Nio – the head price Chinese language EV manufacturer – has seen its stock cruise a whopping 58% over the final month Trading at about $45 per share, pushed by sturdy transport numbers for October and a conducive regulatory atmosphere in China for EVs. After a 12x rally year up to now, Nio’s market cap is now greater than Widespread Motors. Whereas Nio is for trudge growing like a flash, with Income on note to double this year, the stock looks overrated in our peek for a number of reasons. Initially, there might perchance be a possibility that Tesla might perchance well well well give Nio a bustle for its money in its home turf, as it prepares to originate a locally made Mannequin Y SUV, which reports demonstrate might perchance well well well possibly be priced cheaper than Nio’s entry-stage SUV ES6, which begins at $54okay. Besides to a doubtlessly decrease tag, Tesla’s stronger ticket record and instrument facets might perchance well well well create its autos noteworthy extra beautiful to customers. The company might perchance well well well also face challenges extra scaling up manufacturing. For instance, Nio recalled about 5,000 autos final year after reports of extra than one fires. Nio will possible be very richly valued at about 26x projected 2020 Revenues, in comparison with Tesla which trades at about 12x. Whereas Nio’s voice charges are indubitably greater than Tesla’s, the hazards are also greater given the intense competitors within the Chinese language EV residence where there are over 400 producers.

[11/3/2020] Stable October Deliveries Power Chinese language EV Stocks

The stock prices of predominant U.S. listed Chinese language electric-car producers soared on Monday, as they reported sturdy deliveries for October. Nio – one in every of the largest EV startups in China – saw its stock cruise by about 9%, as it reported that deliveries in October practically doubled year-over-year to 5,055 autos. Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), one other top price EV player saw its stock rise by about 7%, as it delivered about 3,040 autos thru the month, marking an expand of about 230% from a year ago, pushed essentially by gross sales of its P7 sedan which became once launched earlier this year. Then all over again, deliveries had been a chunk of decrease month-over-month. Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI), an organization that sells EVs that in actual fact dangle a tiny gasoline engine – talked about that it delivered 3,692 of its Li ONE SUVs in October, marking a month-over-month expand of about 5%. The company started manufacturing fully unhurried final year.

[10/30/2020] How Make Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto Compare

The Chinese language electric car residence is booming, with China-essentially based entirely entirely producers accounting for over 50% of world EV deliveries. Ask of for EVs in China is possible to live sturdy as the Chinese language authorities wants about 25% of all unusual cars sold within the nation to be electric by 2025, up from roughly 5% at the moment. [3] Whereas Tesla is a prime within the Chinese language luxury EV market pushed by manufacturing at its unusual Shanghai facility, Nio, Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) – three somewhat younger U.S. listed Chinese language electric car avid gamers, dangle also been gaining traction. In our evaluation Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Make Chinese language EV Stocks Compare? we compare the financial efficiency and valuation of the principle U.S. listed Chinese language electric car avid gamers. Factors of the evaluation are summarized below.

Overview Of Nio, Li Auto & Xpeng’s Alternate

Nio, which became once essentially based in 2014, at the moment presents three top price electric SUVs, ES8, ES6, and EC6, that are priced starting at about $50okay. The company is engaged on environment up self-driving technology and in addition presents somewhat about a odd enhancements akin to Battery as a Carrier (BaaS) – which enables customers to subscribe for automobile batteries, moderately than paying for them upfront. Whereas the corporate has scaled up manufacturing, it hasn’t draw with out challenges, as it recalled about 5,000 autos final year after reports of extra than one fires.

Li Auto sells Prolonged-Range Electric Vehicles, that are really EVs that in actual fact dangle a tiny gasoline engine that might perchance well well generate extra electric energy for the battery. This reduces the need for EV-charging infrastructure, which is at the moment runt in China. The company’s hybrid draw looks to be paying off – with its Li ONE SUV, which is priced at about $46,000 – rating as the discontinue-selling SUV within the unusual energy car segment in China in September 2020. The unusual energy segment consists of fuel cell, electric, and drag-in hybrid autos.

Xpeng produces and sells top price electric autos at the side of the G3 SUV and the P7 four-door sedan, that are roughly positioned as opponents to Tesla’s Mannequin Y SUV and Mannequin 3 sedan, although they are extra affordable, with the fundamental model of the G3 starting at about $22,000 submit subsidies. The G3 SUV became once among the discontinue 3 Electric SUVs when it comes to gross sales in China in 2019. Whereas the corporate started manufacturing in unhurried 2018, to delivery with by device of a deal with an established automaker, it has started manufacturing at its dangle manufacturing facility within the Guangdong province.

How Occupy The Deliveries, Revenues & Margins Trended

Nio delivered about 21okay autos in 2019, up from about 11okay autos in 2018. This compares to Xpeng which delivered about 13okay autos in 2019 and Li Auto which delivered about 1k autos, pondering that it started manufacturing fully unhurried final year. Whereas Nio’s deliveries this year might perchance well well well methodology about 40okay objects, Li Auto and Xpeng tend to elevate around 25okay autos with Li Auto seeing the very top voice. Over 2019, Nio’s Revenues stood at $1.1 billion, in comparison with about $40 million for Li Auto and $330 million for Xpeng. Nio’s Revenues tend to develop 95% this year, whereas Xpeng’s Revenues tend to develop by about 120%. All three companies live deeply lossmaking as charges connected to R&D and SG&A live high relative to Revenues. Nio’s Obtain Margins stood at -195% in 2019, Li Auto’s margins stood at about -860% whereas Xpeng’s margins stood at -160%. Then all over again, margins tend to present a consume to sharply in 2020, as volumes obtain up.

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Valuation

Nio’s Market Cap stood at about $37 billion as of October 28, 2020, with its stock tag rising by about 7x year-to-date attributable to surging investor hobby in EV shares. Li Auto and Xpeng, that were both listed within the U.S. around August as they regarded to capitalize on surging valuations, dangle a market cap of about $15 billion and $14 billion, respectively. On a relative foundation, Nio trades at about 15x projected 2020 Revenues, Li Auto trades at about 12x, whereas Xpeng trades at about 20x.

Whereas valuations are indubitably high, investors are possible having a bet that these companies will continue to develop within the domestic market, whereas ultimately taking half in a bigger position within the realm EV residence leveraging China’s somewhat low-price manufacturing, and the nation’s ecosystem of battery and auto elements suppliers. Of the three companies, Nio might perchance well well well be the safer bet, pondering its a chunk of longer note file, greater Revenues, and investments in technology akin to battery swaps and self-driving. Li Auto also looks beautiful pondering its snappy voice – pushed by the uptake of its hybrid powertrains – and comparatively beautiful valuation of about 12x 2020 Revenues.

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