Nio, Xpeng, Li Auto: Chinese EV Stocks Had A Good December. What Does 2022 Hold?

BRAZIL – 2021/03/24: On this relate illustration a NIO model seen displayed on a smartphone. (Photo … [+] Illustration by Rafael Henrique/SOPA Photos/LightRocket by technique of Getty Photos)


SOPA Photos/LightRocket by technique of Getty Photos

U.S.-listed Chinese language electrical automobile makers Nio (NYSE: NIO)Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI), and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) reported solid shipping numbers for December 2021, with out reference to the ongoing provide chain points which has hurt automobile production globally. While EV question in China has remained sturdy thru the past year, December proved to be particularly solid, as a result of a planned subsidy lower on electrical vehicles in 2022, which possible led to some investors to reach their purchases. So how did the three corporations fare in December and for 2021?

Xpeng took the highest set up for December and 2021, turning in a file 16,000 vehicles for the month, pushed by solid sales of its P7 sedan and a rapid production ramp of its currently launched Xpeng P5. Total deliveries for 2021 stood at a little over 98,000 vehicles, up 263% versus final year. Li Auto, too, delivered a file 14,087 gadgets in December, with its corpulent-year deliveries rising 177% to 90,491 vehicles because the corporate witnessed sturdy question for the updated version of the Li-One SUV, its most productive automobile mannequin. Despite the truth that Nio didn’t put up file monthly numbers, with deliveries coming in at about 10,489 vehicles, its corpulent-year numbers grew by around 109% year-over-year to 91,429 gadgets.

So what’s the outlook delight in for these corporations in 2022? While we question shipping development to ramp up additional, pushed by contemporary capability additions and doable international enlargement, with margins additionally trending elevated, pushed by better economies of scale and mounted mark absorption, the outlook for the stock costs is possible to be less sure. The continued regulatory concerns within the Chinese language markets and rising hobby charges might per chance per chance weigh on the returns for EV shares that are excessive development, excessive multiple plays. Glimpse our diagnosis on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Produce Chinese language EV Stocks Compare? for extra info on how XPEV stock stacks up versus its peers.

Beneath you’ll gain our previous protection of Nio, Li Auto, and Xpeng the set up that you would be succesful of additionally be aware our look over time.

[10/28/2021] What’s Unique With Li Auto Inventory?

Li Auto stock (NASDAQ

NDAQ
: LI) rose by nearly 4.6% all the design in which thru the final week, compared with the broader S&P 500 which remained roughly flat over the same duration. The stock additionally remains up by a solid 25% all the design in which thru the final month (about 21 Trading days). While Li Auto stock confronted some stress in September as a result of the Evergrande debt disaster in China and concerns over rising bond yields, it has recovered sharply thru October pushed by a few components. At the foundation, Li Auto and other Chinese language EV avid gamers enjoy scaled up their deliveries smartly with out reference to the ongoing chip shortage, possible enabling them to earn market part at the expense of rivals, particularly within the domestic market the set up they drive a bulk of sales. As an illustration, Li Auto grew its deliveries by 190% year-over-year in Q3 to about 25,116 vehicles, while Mercedes Benz seen world retail sales tumble by nearly 30% over the same duration. Secondly, the broader EV dwelling has additionally acquired, pushed by definite news from EV bellwether Tesla

TSLA
, which posted a solid space of Q3 2021 earnings and acquired a 100,000 automobile present from condo automobile predominant Hertz.

Now, is Li Auto stock poised to develop additional? In conserving with our machine studying diagnosis of developments within the historical stock mark, there is a 53% likelihood of an expand in LI stock over the next month (twenty-one Trading days). Glimpse our diagnosis on Li Auto Inventory Probability Of Upward push for extra info.

5 Days: LI 4.6%, vs. S&P 500 0.3%; Outperformed market

(23% event chance)

  • Li Auto stock rose 4.6% over a 5-day Trading duration ending 10/27/2021, compared with the broader market (S&P500) which rose 0.3% over the same duration.
  • A swap of 4.6% or extra over 5 Trading days has a 23% event chance, which has happened 114 cases out of 496 within the final two years.

Ten Days: LI 14%, vs. S&P 500 4.3%; Outperformed market

(14% event chance)

  • Li Auto stock rose 14% all the design in which thru the final ten Trading days (two weeks), compared with the broader market (S&P500) which rose by 4.3%.
  • A swap of 14% or extra over ten Trading days has a 14% event chance, which has happened 68 cases out of 496 within the final two years.

Twenty-One Days: LI 25%, vs. S&P 500 4.7%; Outperformed market

(10% event chance)

  • Li Auto stock rose 25% all the design in which thru the final twenty-one Trading days (about one month), compared with the broader market (S&P500) which rose by 4.7%
  • A swap of 25% or extra over twenty-one Trading days has a 10% event chance, which has happened 49 cases out of 497 within the final two years.

Electrical vehicles are the model forward for transportation, but deciding on the appropriate EV shares will be tricky. Investing in Electrical Vehicle Element Provider Stocks normally is a apt different to play the enlargement within the EV market.

[9/23/2021] Li Auto Inventory Hit By Chip Shortage And Evergrande Crisis, Nonetheless It Would per chance per chance also simply Be Time To Make a choice

Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) stock declined by nearly 7.5% in Monday’s Trading and remains down by 9.5% all the design in which thru the final week. There are a few components that drove the promote-off. At the foundation, Li lower its guidance for the fresh quarter, noting that it expects to bring about 24,500 vehicles, down from its previous guidance of 25,500 to 26,000 vehicles, as a result of the dearth of obvious semiconductor parts. This means that September deliveries would stand at roughly 6,500 gadgets – a decline of about 30% versus August. Furthermore, final week, China’s minister for alternate and recordsdata technology acknowledged that the nation has “too many” EV avid gamers, and that’s stoking fears that the EV dwelling might per chance per chance scrutinize extra interference from the Chinese language declare going forward. Individually, there are concerns that China’s second-largest precise estate developer, the struggling Evergrande neighborhood, might per chance per chance default on its debt. The company it sounds as if has liabilities to the tune of around $300 billion and a default might per chance per chance influence Chinese language banks and credit ranking markets, and this led to a broader promote-off in Chinese language and world shares on Monday.

So, is Li Auto stock worth a seek following the fresh promote-off? We are looking ahead to concerning the stock is worth a seek. EV question clearly isn’t a downside in China as EV deliveries in August surged by 200% year-over-year to 249,000 all over producers. Furthermore, the dearth of the explicit chips that Li Auto looks to be waiting on looks to be led to by the fresh Covid surge in Malaysia, as a substitute of by structural points. This can unravel within the coming months, serving to the corporate scale up production. Li’s valuation additionally remains soft relative to other Chinese language electrical automobile avid gamers, Trading at about 8x projected 2021 income, compared with Nio, which trades at about 10x, and Xpeng which trades at over 11x. Li Auto stock additionally remains down by about 23% from its June 2021 highs, for the time being Trading at about $27 per part, presenting a cheap entry level for investors.

[8/31/2021] Li Auto Inventory Updates

Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) posted a a chunk wider than expected discover loss for Q2 2021, even supposing its revenues and outlook for Q3 beat estimates. The company delivered a complete of 17,575 vehicles in Q2 marking a sequential expand of about 40% and a year-over-year expand of about 166%, pushed by surging question for the upgraded version of the corporate’s Li-One SUV. Vehicle sales came in at about $759 million marking an expand of about 42% sequentially. Snide income margins stood at 18.9%, up from 13.3% in Q2 2020 and 17.3% in Q1 2021, indicating that Li Auto is producing its vehicles noteworthy extra efficiently.

Li Auto’s outlook used to be additionally solid, with the corporate looking ahead to deliveries to reach serve in at between 25,000 and 26,000 for Q3 2021, marking a sequential expand of over 45% at the mid-level. The guidance is especially encouraging because it comes with out reference to elevated competitors within the Chinese language EV market and the ongoing semiconductor shortage which has constrained production within the auto alternate. Furthermore, Li’s projected development is additionally stronger than its rivals equivalent to Nio which has most productive guided for 10% sequential development at the mid-level of its guidance for Q3, and Xpeng which initiatives about 25% development. Li additionally expects complete income to rise to between $1.08 billion and $1.12 billion for Q3.

So is Li Auto stock worth pondering at fresh stages? Despite the truth that the stock has rallied by around 70% from its Would per chance per chance also simply 2021 lows to about $29 for the time being, it still trades at correct about 9.5x projected 2021 revenues, which is lower than rivals equivalent to Nio (NYSE: NIO) and Xpeng, which alternate at about 11x and 13x, respectively. We are looking ahead to concerning the lower multiple and stronger with regards to-time duration development prospects construct Li Auto a solid earn at fresh stages. Glimpse our diagnosis on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Produce Chinese language EV Stocks Compare? for a top level belief of the financial and valuation metrics of the three Chinese language EV avid gamers.

[8/3/2021] Li Auto, Nio, Xpeng: How Did Chinese language EV Gamers Fare In July?

U.S. listed Chinese language electrical automobile avid gamers supplied updates on their shipping figures for July, with Li Auto taking the highest set up, while Nio (NYSE: NIO), which constantly delivered extra vehicles than Li and Xpeng except June, falling to third device. Li Auto delivered a file 8,589 vehicles, an expand of about 11% versus June, pushed by a solid uptake for its refreshed Li-One EVs. Xpeng additionally posted file deliveries of 8,040, up a solid 22% versus June, pushed by stronger sales of its P7 sedan. Nio delivered 7,931 vehicles, a decline of about 2% versus June amid lower sales of the corporate’s mid-fluctuate ES6s SUV and the EC6s coupe SUV, that are possible facing stronger competitors from Tesla, which currently reduced costs on its Mannequin Y which competes right away with Nio’s choices.

While the shares of all three corporations acquired on Monday, following the shipping reports, they’ve underperformed the broader markets year-to-date on yarn of China’s fresh crackdown on unprecedented-tech corporations, as effectively as a rotation out of development shares into cyclical shares. That acknowledged, we think concerning the longer-time duration outlook for the Chinese language EV sector remains definite, because the automobile semiconductor shortage, which beforehand hurt production, is showing signs of abating, while question for EVs in China remains sturdy, pushed by the authorities’s policy of promoting dapper vehicles. In our diagnosis  Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Produce Chinese language EV Stocks Compare? we compare the financial performance and valuations of the predominant U.S.-listed Chinese language electrical automobile avid gamers.

[7/21/2021] What’s Unique With Li Auto Inventory?

Li Auto stock (NASDAQ: LI) declined by about 6% all the design in which thru the final week (5 Trading days), compared with the S&P 500 which used to be down by about 1% over the same duration. The promote-off comes as U.S. regulators face rising stress to implement the Keeping Foreign Corporations Responsible Act, which might per chance per chance result within the delisting of some Chinese language corporations from U.S. exchanges within the event that they attain no longer be aware U.S. auditing guidelines. Despite the truth that this isn’t explicit to Li, most U.S.-listed Chinese language shares enjoy seen declines. Individually, China’s top technology corporations, including Alibaba and Didi World, enjoy additionally reach below elevated scrutiny by domestic regulators, and that’s additionally possible impacting corporations delight in Li Auto. So will the declines continue for Li Auto stock, or is a rally having a seek extra possible? Per the Trefis Machine studying engine, which analyzes historical mark recordsdata, Li Auto stock has a 61% likelihood of an expand over the next month. Glimpse our diagnosis on Li Auto Inventory Possibilities Of Upward push for extra info.

The basic image for Li Auto is additionally having a seek better. Li is seeing question surge, pushed by the start of an upgraded version of the Li-One SUV. In June, deliveries rose by a solid 78% sequentially and Li Auto additionally beat the upper terminate of its Q2 guidance of 15,500 vehicles, turning in a complete of 17,575 vehicles over the quarter. Li’s deliveries additionally eclipsed fellow U.S.-listed Chinese language electrical automobile startup Xpeng in June. Things might per chance per chance still continue to improve. The worst of the automobile semiconductor shortage – which constrained auto production over the previous few months – now looks to be over, with Taiwan’s TSMC, one in all the field’s largest semiconductor makers, indicating that it would ramp up production seriously in Q3. This can abet improve Li’s sales additional.

[7/6/2021] Chinese language EV Gamers Post Chronicle Deliveries 

The tip U.S. listed Chinese language electrical automobile avid gamers  Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) all posted file shipping figures for June, because the automobile semiconductor shortage, which beforehand hurt production, shows signs of abating, while question for EVs in China remains solid. While Nio delivered a complete of 8,083 vehicles in June, marking a jump of over 20% versus Would per chance per chance also simply, Xpeng delivered a complete of 6,565 vehicles in June, marking a sequential expand of 15%. Nio’s Q2 numbers had been roughly per the upper terminate of its guidance, while Xpeng’s figures beat its guidance. Li Auto posted the ideal jump, turning in 7,713 vehicles in June, an expand of over 78% versus Would per chance per chance also simply. Development used to be pushed by solid sales of the upgraded version of the Li-One SUV. Li Auto additionally beat the upper terminate of its Q2 guidance of 15,500 vehicles, turning in a complete of 17,575 vehicles over the quarter.

Now, even supposing development has indubitably picked up, the shares don’t precisely appear cheap at fresh valuations. Nio and Xpeng alternate at 15x forward income, while Li Auto trades at 10x. Reach-time duration threats to EV valuations encompass elevated inflation and fresh commentary by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is now it sounds as if having a seek at two hobby rate hikes in 2023, in would truly like to 2024. This can place stress on excessive-multiple, excessive-development shares, including EV names. In our diagnosis  Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Produce Chinese language EV Stocks Compare? we compare the financial performance and valuations of the predominant U.S.-listed Chinese language electrical automobile avid gamers.

[6/21/2021] Chinese language EV Stocks Fully Priced After Novel Rally?

The shares of Chinese language EV avid gamers enjoy surged all the design in which thru the final month, largely reversing the outcomes of the promote-off seen earlier this year. Nio stock (NYSE: NIO) has rallied by nearly 38% all the design in which thru the final month, Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) acquired 45%, and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) surged by nearly 58%. Now even supposing the three corporations posted blended shipping figures for the month of Would per chance per chance also simply, with Nio and Li Auto each posting declines in their deliveries versus April, and Xpeng rising sales marginally, the sales numbers possible weren’t as depraved as expected, pondering the semiconductor shortage that has roiled the auto alternate. In distinction, predominant auto avid gamers equivalent to GM and Ford had to rapidly lazy or scale serve production at a variety of vegetation.

The outlook supplied by the three corporations used to be additionally stronger than expected, giving investors self belief that the worst of the semiconductor shortage is possible over. Li Auto has guided to 14,500 to 15,500 deliveries for the second quarter, a sequential expand of 22% on the upper terminate. The company says that it is a long way optimistic that precise numbers will exceed guidance, supplied that it is a long way seeing stronger than expected orders for the upgraded version of its Li-One SUV. Nio additionally reiterated its Q2 2021 shipping guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could per chance well per chance bring a file 8,200 vehicles in June.

Now are the shares a need at fresh stages? While the enlargement outlook is undoubtedly solid, the shares don’t precisely appear cheap at fresh valuations. Nio trades at 14x forward income, while Li Auto trades at 9x, and Xpeng trades at about 16x. Reach-time duration threats to EV valuations encompass elevated inflation and fresh commentary by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is now it sounds as if having a seek at two hobby rate hikes in 2023, in would truly like to 2024. This can place stress on excessive-multiple, excessive-development shares, including EV names. In our diagnosis  Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Produce Chinese language EV Stocks Compare? we compare the financial performance and valuations of the predominant U.S.-listed Chinese language electrical automobile avid gamers.

[6/2/2021] Is The Worst Of The Semiconductor Crunch Over For Chinese language EVs? 

Chinese language electrical automobile majors Nio (NYSE: NIO) and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) supplied blended shipping figures for the month of Would per chance per chance also simply, as they persisted to be impacted by the fresh shortage of semiconductors. While Nio delivered a complete of 6,711 vehicles in Would per chance per chance also simply, down 5.5% from April, Xpeng used to be in a location to develop deliveries by about 10% all the design in which thru the final month to 5,686 gadgets, even supposing the amount is below peak monthly sales of 6,015 vehicles witnessed in January. Despite the truth that every corporations reported sturdy year-over-year development numbers (2x to 6x), the sequential figures are extra carefully tracked for lickety-split-rising corporations.

On the different hand, things are doubtlessly going to improve from right here. Nio, for instance, reiterated its Q2 2021 shipping guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could per chance well per chance bring as many as 8,200 vehicles in June, a monthly file. Here’s possible a trademark that the realm car semiconductor shortage is easing off, and additionally a imprint that Nio is retaining its acquire within the Chinese language EV market, with out reference to mounting competitors. Nio stock rallied by nearly 10% in Tuesday’s Trading, while Xpeng’s stock used to be up by about 8% following the document.

Despite the fresh rally, the shares might per chance additionally still be worth pondering at fresh stages. Nio stock remains down by about 20% year-to-date while Xpeng is down by about 22%. Glimpse our diagnosis on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Produce Chinese language EV Stocks Compare? for a top level belief of the financial and valuation metrics of the three U.S. listed Chinese language EV avid gamers.

[5/21/2021] How Produce Chinese language EV Stocks Compare?

U.S. listed Chinese language EV avid gamers Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) enjoy underperformed this year, with their shares down by roughly 30% every, since early January. So how attain these shares compare put up the correction? While Nio and Xpeng remain pricier compared with Li Auto, they doubtlessly define their elevated valuation for a few reasons. Here’s a chunk extra about these corporations.

Our diagnosis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Produce Chinese language EV Stocks Compare? compares the financial performance and valuation of the predominant U.S. listed Chinese language electrical automobile avid gamers.

Nio remains the most richly valued of the three corporations, Trading at about 10.5x forward income. Revenues have a tendency to develop by over 110% this year, per consensus estimates. Longer-time duration development is additionally possible to live solid, given the corporate’s wide product portfolio (it already has three gadgets on the market), its outlandish innovations equivalent to battery swapping, its world enlargement plans, and investments into self reliant utilizing. Nio model additionally has loads extra buzz, with the corporate seen because the most instruct rival to Tesla in China. Snide margins stood at 19.5% in Q1 2021, up from a unfavourable 12% a year within the past.

Xpeng trades at about 10x projected 2021 revenues. Gross sales development is projected to be the strongest among the three corporations, rising by over 150% this year, per consensus estimates. Besides its elevated projected development, investors were assigning a top rate to the corporate as a result of its progress within the self reliant utilizing dwelling. Xpeng for the time being sells the G3 SUV and the P7 sedan, and its contemporary P5 compact sedan is possible to hit the roads later this year. Despite the truth that Xpeng’s defective margins enjoy improved, rising to about 11% over Q1, versus unfavourable stages a year within the past, they’re still below Nio’s margins.

Li Auto trades at correct 6x projected 2021 revenues, the bottom of the three corporations. Revenues have a tendency to roughly double this year, with defective margins standing at 17.5% as of Q4 2020 (the corporate has but to document Q1 results). The lower valuation is possible as a result of the corporate’s level of interest on a single product – the Li Xiang ONE, an electrical SUV that additionally has a microscopic gasoline engine and additionally as a result of the truth that Li Auto is within the serve of rivals by technique of self reliant utilizing tech.

[10/30/2020] How Produce Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto Compare

The Chinese language electrical automobile (EV) house is booming, with China-essentially essentially based producers accounting for over 50% of world EV deliveries. Quiz for EVs in China is possible to live sturdy because the Chinese language authorities desires about 25% of all contemporary vehicles sold within the nation to be electrical by 2025, up from roughly 5% at fresh. [1] While Tesla is a leader within the Chinese language luxurious EV market pushed by production at its contemporary Shanghai facility, Nio (NYSE:NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) – three reasonably younger U.S. listed Chinese language electrical automobile avid gamers, enjoy additionally been gaining traction. In our diagnosis  Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Produce Chinese language EV Stocks Compare?we compare the financial performance and valuation of the predominant U.S. listed Chinese language electrical automobile avid gamers. Parts of the diagnosis are summarized below.

Overview Of Nio, Li Auto & Xpeng’s Industry

Nio, which used to be essentially based in 2014, for the time being presents three top rate electrical SUVs, ES8, ES6, and EC6, that are priced starting up at about $50okay. The company is engaged on rising self-utilizing technology and additionally presents other outlandish innovations equivalent to Battery as a Provider (BaaS) – which lets in customers to subscribe for automobile batteries, as a substitute of paying for them upfront. While the corporate has scaled up production, it hasn’t reach with out challenges, because it recalled about 5,000 vehicles final year after reports of multiple fires.

Li Auto sells Prolonged-Fluctuate Electrical Autos, that are actually EVs that additionally enjoy a microscopic gasoline engine that might per chance generate additional electrical energy for the battery. This reduces the need for EV-charging infrastructure, which is for the time being restricted in China. The company’s hybrid device looks to be paying off – with its Li ONE SUV, which is priced at about $46,000 – rating because the highest-selling SUV within the contemporary energy automobile section in China in September 2020. The contemporary energy section involves gas cell, electrical, and slump-in hybrid vehicles.

Xpeng produces and sells top rate electrical vehicles including the G3 SUV and the P7 four-door sedan, that are roughly positioned as rivals to Tesla’s Mannequin Y SUV and Mannequin 3 sedan, even supposing they’re extra inexpensive, with the basic version of the G3 starting up at about $22,000 put up subsidies. The G3 SUV used to be among the highest 3 Electrical SUVs by technique of sales in China in 2019. While the corporate started production in leisurely 2018, first and most main by technique of a take care of an established automaker, it has started production at its acquire manufacturing facility within the Guangdong province.

How Comprise The Deliveries, Revenues & Margins Trended

Nio delivered about 21okay vehicles in 2019, up from about 11okay vehicles in 2018. This compares to Xpeng which delivered about 13okay vehicles in 2019 and Li Auto which delivered about 1k vehicles, pondering that it started production most productive leisurely final year. While Nio’s deliveries this year might per chance per chance design about 40okay gadgets, Li Auto and Xpeng have a tendency to bring around 25okay vehicles with Li Auto seeing the very ideal development. Over 2019, Nio’s Revenues stood at $1.1 billion, compared with about $40 million for Li Auto and $330 million for Xpeng. Nio’s Revenues have a tendency to develop 95% this year, while Xpeng’s Revenues have a tendency to develop by about 120%. All three corporations remain deeply lossmaking as charges connected to R&D and SG&A remain excessive relative to Revenues. Nio’s Salvage Margins stood at -195% in 2019, Li Auto’s margins stood at about -860% while Xpeng’s margins stood at -160%. On the different hand, margins have a tendency to support sharply in 2020, as volumes earn up.

Valuation

Nio’s Market Cap stood at about $37 billion as of October 28, 2020, with its stock mark rising by about 7x year-to-date as a result of surging investor hobby in EV shares. Li Auto and Xpeng, which were each listed within the U.S. around August as they regarded to capitalize on surging valuations, enjoy a market cap of about $15 billion and $14 billion, respectively. On a relative basis, Nio trades at about 15x projected 2020 Revenues, Li Auto trades at about 12x, while Xpeng trades at about 20x.

While valuations are indubitably excessive, investors are possible having a wager that these corporations will continue to develop within the domestic market, while within the close taking part within the next role within the realm EV dwelling leveraging China’s reasonably low-mark manufacturing, and the nation’s ecosystem of battery and auto parts suppliers. Of the three corporations, Nio might per chance additionally very effectively be the safer wager, pondering its a chunk longer be aware file, elevated Revenues, and investments in technology equivalent to battery swaps and self-utilizing. Li Auto additionally looks soft pondering its lickety-split development – pushed by the uptake of its hybrid powertrains – and reasonably soft valuation of about 12x 2020 Revenues.

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Notes:

  1. China races forward in electrical vehicles, Financial Times []

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