Tesla Stock: Headed to $1,580?

Tesla ( TSLA 1.32% ) has taken a success now no longer too lengthy up to now. The stock has slid 16% for the explanation that beginning of November, even as the S&P 500 rose more than 2% over that identical timeframe.

Nevertheless despite the stock’s bearish pattern now no longer too lengthy up to now, one analyst thinks the electrical-vehicle maker‘s shares will soar over the next 12 months. The analyst’s up so a ways mark blueprint for the stock requires a formidable 55% upside from the place shares closed on Friday. Based on Tesla’s fragment depend right this moment time, this implies a $1.6 trillion market capitalization.

Right here is why this analyst is so bullish.

A production line in Tesla's factory in Fremont, California.

Tesla manufacturing unit. Picture source: The Motley Fool.

55% upside?

Final Wednesday, Contemporary Street analyst and longtime Tesla bull Pierre Ferragu boosted his 12-month mark blueprint on Tesla stock from $1,290 to $1,580. 

Ferragu justifies his mark blueprint with a stare for file fourth-quarter deliveries, spectacular production rates at the corporate’s manufacturing unit in Shanghai, gigantic earnings voice next year, and more.

Beginning with Ferragu’s estimates for Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries, he says that the electrical-vehicle company’s deliveries would possibly perhaps perhaps presumably reach in as excessive as 280,000 to 285,000 in Q4. The midpoint of this vary would imply 56% year-over-year voice and 17% sequential voice — a formidable feat in a provide constrained atmosphere. This would keep total deliveries for the year at 910,000, or about 87% greater than closing year.

The analyst additionally thinks that Tesla’s total earnings next year can components $80 billion. Right here is about $9 billion greater than the latest consensus analyst estimate requires. Notably, Ferragu believes that Tesla is now producing electrical vehicles at its manufacturing unit in China at an annualized rate of more than 700,000 — correctly above what Tesla firstly acknowledged the manufacturing unit would impact. Including this production to Tesla’s manufacturing unit in Fremont and the corporate’s contemporary factories in Texas and Germany will relief sales soar next year, the analyst believes.

Valuation would possibly perhaps perhaps presumably be the greatest chance going thru Tesla traders

Nevertheless the riskiest piece of this thesis would possibly perhaps perhaps presumably be Ferragu’s stare on the excessive valuation he believes Tesla stock will command. Ferragu thinks Tesla can exchange at 50 to 100 instances earnings for the foreseeable future. Whereas the electrical-vehicle maker definitely deserves to interchange at a just a few savor this right this moment time, in accordance with the corporate’s solid voice prospects, there is repeatedly a bet that voice slows materially in some unspecified time in the future. If voice does gradual materially over the next 5 years, Tesla’s mark-to-earnings ratio would possibly perhaps perhaps presumably drop below Ferragu’s blueprint vary.

Additional, traders can also quiet repeat that Tesla has a mark-to-earnings ratio of over 300 right this moment time. So there is already gigantic voice priced in from the electrical-vehicle maker. For certain, analysts agree that earnings are about to soar. On moderate, analysts imagine that Tesla’s earnings per fragment will develop at an moderate annualized rate of 73% over the next 5 years.

So while Tesla stock is taking a explore more pretty after its recent sell-off, there are quiet risks to owning shares — namely in terms of the stock’s sky-excessive valuation. Tesla will must protect executing extraordinarily correctly over the lengthy haul in expose for its stock to be an outperformer from this stage.

This article represents the understanding of the author, who can also disagree with the “decent” advice notify of a Motley Fool top rate advisory carrier. We’re motley! Questioning an investing thesis – even conception to be one of our own – helps us all think seriously about investing and fabricate selections that relief us modified into smarter, happier, and richer.

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