With Addressable Market Expanding, Is Snowflake Stock A Buy?

UKRAINE – 2021/03/12: On this describe illustration the Snowflake Inc. logo of a US cloud-essentially based mostly … [+] data-warehousing firm is viewed on a smartphone and a private computer show. (Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Photos/LightRocket by strategy of Getty Photos)


SOPA Photos/LightRocket by strategy of Getty Photos

Snowflake stock (NYSE: SNOW) has rallied by virtually 36% from its lows of about $190 per portion viewed in mid-Would possibly perhaps well well. The rally comes on the abet of a more definite outlook from brokerage analysts and the strong Q1 FY’22 earnings, which noticed the firm file a 110% one year-over-one year development in product revenues. Then once more, with the stock now Trading at over $250 per portion or about 69x consensus 2022 revenues, does it detached remain handsome? We impress Snowflake stock at about $230 per portion, merely below the market impress, attributable to shut to-term dangers akin to rising inflation and the Federal Reserve’s increasingly hawkish stance.

Then once more, the stock can also merely detached detached remain an valid bet for traders with a lengthy-term look. Cloud-essentially based mostly data warehousing is clearly the lengthy drag, as companies proceed emigrate from on-premise systems to the cloud, which is more cost effective and scalable. Snowflake, which is viewed as a skills leader within the house, is getting more bullish about its lengthy-term possibilities. All over its first analyst assembly as a public firm, held in June, Snowflake upped the scale of its estimated addressable market from $80 billion to $90 billion. Moreover, the firm outlined that it turned into concentrating on $10 billion in annual product earnings by fiscal 2029 (FY ends January). This interprets into a compounded annual development price of about 35% over the next seven years, meaning that the firm can also merely detached step by step grow into its top price valuation within the approaching years.

Survey our interactive dashboard prognosis on Snowflake’s Valuation for more important aspects on the firm’s earnings, development, valuation, and comparison with peers.

[6/8/2021] Snowflake Inventory Updates

Snowflake stock (NYSE: SNOW) has rallied by about 30% over the final month or so, rising from all-time lows of about $190 per portion. There are about a factors using the most up-to-date beneficial properties. First and predominant, promote-facet analysts turned broadly more definite on the stock following the correction, and it’s also likely that traders, who had been beforehand on the sidelines, began seeing impress within the stock. Moreover, Snowflake also published a stronger than expected enviornment of Q1 FY’22 earnings against the tip of Would possibly perhaps well well, noting that its product revenues soared 110% one year-over-one year to $213.8 million, topping steering of $195 million to $200 million. We known as Snowflake stock a robust resolve abet in early Would possibly perhaps well well when it traded at ranges of below $200. (look update below) So does the stock remain promising at recent ranges of around $250 per portion?

Snowflake stock trades at a comparatively excessive 65x projected FY’22 earnings. Then once more, we detached secure the stock detached has plenty going for it, pondering that Cloud-essentially based mostly data warehousing is clearly the lengthy drag, as organizations proceed to transition from on-premise systems to the cloud, which is more cost effective and scalable. Snowflake’s providing is viewed as most effective at school, providing more flexibility when put next to rival merchandise from Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Revenues are projected to grow at around 85% this fiscal one year and by about 65% for next one year, per consensus estimates. Longer-term development can also merely detached also prolong, as Snowflake estimates its total recent addressable market at over $80 billion. That’s about 70x its projected FY’22 gross sales. Even though Snowflake will require some time to grow into its top price valuation, the stock shall be price a survey, because it detached remains down by about 35% from its all-time highs.

[5/11/2021] Snowflake Inventory Looks Love A Tough Take

Snowflake stock (NYSE: SNOW) has declined by about 13% over the final week, driven by the broader promote-off in skills stocks, as traders continued to re-allocate to cyclical and value stocks that have a tendency to outperform for the length of an economic restoration. Excessive a couple of names akin to Snowflake, maintain been namely badly hit with the stock now down by about 50% from the all-time highs viewed in December. So is Snowflake stock a resolve at recent ranges? We secure it’s for about a causes.

Snowflake’s forward P/S a couple of has declined from about 100x about a months ago to about 50x for the time being, no topic the incontrovertible fact that the classic describe for the firm has no longer ceaselessly changed. Cloud-essentially based mostly data warehousing is clearly the lengthy drag, as organizations transition from storing data on on-premise servers and expensive hardware to cloud-essentially based mostly offerings that are more cost effective and scalable. Snowflake is extremely smartly placed within the house, as its product works across cloud platforms and also separates storage from computing for billing ideas. This shows in Snowflake’s performance, with the firm constantly doubling revenues over the final few years. Gross sales are also projected to grow by about 85% in FY’22 (fiscal years cease on January 31) to about $1.1 billion per consensus estimates. Pondering that the firm had a contract backlog of around $1.3 billion as of Q4 FY’21, it’s likely that it would also merely detached conveniently meet these estimates. There appears to be plenty more room for development in some unspecified time in the future. Snowflake estimates its total recent addressable market at about $81 billion, over 70x its projected FY’22 earnings. Snowflake’s industry mannequin is also consumption-essentially based mostly, pretty than being fastened price, unlike many different SaaS names, giving the firm’s hundreds of upside as data and search data from volumes rise for purchasers. Survey our interactive dashboard prognosis on Snowflake’s Valuation for more important aspects on the firm’s earnings, development, valuation, and comparison with peers.

[3/8/2021] Snowflake Inventory Is Better Value Following Q4 Outcomes, Most modern Sell-Off

Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) published a stronger-than-expected enviornment of Q4 2021 outcomes final week (FY ends January), with earnings rising by about 117% to $107.6 million, driven by continued strong uptake of the firm’s cloud-essentially based mostly data warehousing solutions. The firm also equipped steering for FY’22, projecting $1.00 billion to $1.02 billion in product earnings, translating into a development price of as essential as 84% one year-over-one year. The firm’s ideal performance tasks (RPO) – or the amount of future earnings that has been shriveled by customers but no longer known – grew bigger than 3x one year-over-one year to $1.3 billion.

Whereas Snowflake’s development outlook remains strong, is the stock an valid resolve? Potentially. Even though Snowflake is detached valued at a comparatively rich 62x consensus 2022 revenues, the stock has corrected by about 20% over the final month and is down by shut to 39% from its submit IPO highs, Trading at ranges of around $240 per portion. Snowflake is also likely to grow into its lofty valuation comparatively quickly. The firm’s addressable market is trim at $81 billion and Snowflake’s product also has a couple of advantages over rivals, including being platform agnostic, whereas also setting apart storage from computing. One at a time, the submit-IPO lock-up-linked overhang on the stock is also likely to ease, as the firm’s third and closing lock-up expired following Q4 outcomes. Now, there are perhaps more cost effective ways to play the cloud-essentially based mostly data warehousing house. As an illustration, legacy database and analytics necessary Teradata has made hundreds of development with its maintain cloud-essentially based mostly product. (look our update below) Then once more, Snowflake’s strong product, execution, and most up-to-date correction create the stock a comparatively compelling opt.

[2/17/2021] Teradata: Snowflake On A Funds?

We secure that Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW), a provider of cloud data warehousing solutions, is significantly overrated when put next to Teradata (NYSE:TDC), a firm that affords database and analytics tool. Snowflake has a market cap of about $82 billion, valued at about 75x forward earnings, whereas Teradata’s market cap stands at merely over $5 billion, or at about 3x forward revenues. Does this hole in valuation create sense? We don’t secure so. Definite, Snowflake is the most popular title within the cloud data warehousing house, which is in need with traders, and its revenues are growing faster, but there is more to this myth. Whereas Teradata is step by step linked to on-premise databases, it has made better than expected development with its maintain cloud-essentially based mostly product. We secure that also can commerce within the fable surrounding Teradata, potentially enabling the stock to be re-rated by traders, closing its valuation hole with Snowflake. Let’s resolve a closer impress on the two companies’ monetary performance, cloud data warehousing merchandise, and valuations to discover more. Snowflake Vs. Teradata: SNOW Inventory Looks Overvalued When when put next with TDC Revenues Enhance & Margins

Snowflake’s revenues are heading in the right direction to develop at an annual price of over 140% between FY’19 and FY’21 (fiscal years cease January) as count on for its cloud-essentially based mostly product has soared. FY’21 revenues are expected to face at roughly $580 million, per consensus estimates, when the firm reports its outcomes for the length of the first week of March. When when put next, Teradata has viewed revenues decline from around $2.2 billion in 2018 to about $1.8 billion in 2020, as its on-premise warehousing mannequin confronted competition from Cloud-essentially based mostly gamers. Then once more, Teradata is price it, with its adjusted working margins standing at about 13% final one year. Whereas these aren’t gargantuan margins for a skills firm, they’re detached better than Snowflake, which remains deeply loss-making.

Teradata’s Development In Cloud Data Warehousing 

Whereas Snowflake has been bigger than doubling its industry every one year, Teradata’s cloud operations are also gaining strong traction. Specifically, over Q4 2020 the firm stated that the annual routine earnings (ARR) – which is the annual impress of all routine contracts as of Q4 – for public-cloud-essentially based mostly services grew to $106 million, a 165% leap one year-over-one year. Powerful devour Snowflake, Teradata’s product is also cloud-agnostic and works across the predominant public clouds from Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. The firm also has a trim enviornment of present customers that it would potentially promote its cloud-essentially based mostly providing to. If truth be told, within the firm’s earnings name, it indicated that it turned into a hit some customers remote from Snowflake. Overall, Teradata expects public cloud ARR to develop by a minimal of 165% one year-over-one year in Q1 2021 and expects to a minimal of double ARR one year-over-one year for 2021.

Why The Valuation Gap Would possibly perhaps well well Slim

Let’s advance abet to the valuation. If we had been to cost Teradata’s cloud industry on my own by applying Snowflake’s recent 75x earnings a couple of to its $106 million drag price revenues, the industry segment would possibly perhaps presumably be valued at about $8 billion – with the exception of Terada’s worthwhile legacy companies, which detached chronicle for over 90% of its earnings. Then once more, Teradata’s total recent market cap stands at virtually about $5 billion. This implies that the firm ought to be succesful of free up impress from the cloud industry because it continues to file strong development within the approaching quarters. Overall, we secure Teradata stock appears to be like devour the next bet when put next to Snowflake at this juncture, given its lower valuation and value risk, and the aptitude upside from its cloud industry. We secure that the variation in P/S a couple of of 75x for Snowflake versus below 3x for Teradata will likely narrow going forward, implying better returns for Teradata stock.

[1/22/2021] Is Snowflake Inventory A Take? 

Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW) stock trades at ranges of around $286, down by roughly 26% from its December highs driven in fraction by a partial lock-up expiration, which allowed employees to promote a section of their vested alternate ideas, and a few promote-facet analysts turning cautious relating to the firm’s valuation. Snowflake stock now trades at about 75x projected FY’22 Earnings (FY ends January), smartly above the broader Web tool sector Trading at a P/S a couple of of about 15x. [1] Then once more, hyper-development names akin to Snowflake cannot be valued in step with multiples on my own and traders must impress on the firm’s broader myth and its skill to drive lengthy-term development.

Our interactive dashboard prognosis of Snowflake’s Valuation provides more important aspects on the firm’s earnings, development, and valuation.

Snowflake sells database warehousing tool – the utilization of a the same long-established equipped by on-premise gamers akin to Oracle – designed namely for the cloud. This mannequin supplies plenty more flexibility and scalability, with pricing also being variable, in step with consumption. Snowflake’s Revenues are projected to double in FY’21 to about $580 million and grow by virtually 90% next one year, per consensus figures. There would possibly perhaps be suitable reason to secure that Snowflake can proceed to submit excessive ranges of development going forward as smartly. First and predominant, the addressable market is trim at $81 billion, per Snowflake’s estimates. Pondering that consensus Earnings estimates for 2022 stand at merely around $1.1 billion, the firm has various room for development. Whereas there are assorted rivals on this house, including Amazon’s Redshift, Microsoft’s Azure Synapse, and Google’s Mountainous Inquire of, Snowflake supplies strong product differentiation. Snowflake’s mannequin works across assorted cloud platforms. Snowflake also separates storage from computing, enabling each to scale up or down independently, giving customers better flexibility and cost savings. Snowflake is also it sounds as if more easy for purchasers to make say of, with out the necessity for a dedicated database administrator.

The low-ardour-price atmosphere is causing traders to resolve an extended-horizon look with stocks, discounting shut to-term earnings for lengthy-term beneficial properties and this has precipitated traders to pay a immense top price for development names akin to Snowflake. Then once more, Snowflake’s valuable development runway, coupled with its modern product can also merely detached create the stock an valid lengthy-term bet at recent ranges though we don’t secure the stock will look outsize beneficial properties within the shut to-term. There’s also shrimp room for error. If Snowflake’s development falters for any reason, the stock can also look a serious correction.

[Updated 1/5/2021] What’s Going down With Snowflake Inventory?

Cloud-essentially based mostly data warehousing firm Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW) noticed its stock decline by virtually 30% over the final month. Whereas no longer essential the truth is changed on the bottom for Snowflake, which is heading in the right direction to bigger than double revenues this fiscal one year, there are about a factors which maintain likely driven the promote-off. First and predominant, Snowflake stock remains very richly valued Trading at over 130x consensus FY’21 Revenues and is up by about 130% from its IPO impress. Pondering these immense beneficial properties, traders are likely reserving some earnings. Secondly, in mid-December Snowflake noticed its first lockup free up submit its IPO, allowing employees to promote 25% of their vested alternate ideas. Whereas this handiest had a restricted influence, traders are likely eager that the fat lock-up expiration, which occurs this March, will build plenty more stress on the stock. Snowflake’s drift, or the shares accessible to traders for Trading, stands at virtually about 18% of its total shares smartly-known for the time being. Thirdly, with Covid-19 vaccines being rolled out globally, traders shall be rethinking their allocation to cloud computing stocks which maintain been a sizzling theme throughout the pandemic, whereas shifting to more impress bets. This also can additionally be a element hurting Snowflake stock.

[11/30/2020] Why Snowflake Rallied 20%

Cloud-essentially based mostly data warehousing startup Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW) noticed its stock rally by over 20% final week to about $330 per portion, valuing the firm at about $90 billion. Whereas there wasn’t essential data from the firm over the past week, there is in most cases about a factors that drove up the stock. First and predominant, Snowflake is likely to file its first enviornment of quarterly outcomes as a public firm on December 2 and traders are likely awaiting strong numbers. For perspective, the consensus estimates that the firm will submit earnings of about $148 million, and a loss per portion of about -$0.26. One at a time, traders maintain continued to double down on excessive-development and energy stocks throughout the final week, after taking a breather earlier within the month amid the vaccine data. As an illustration, Zoom acquired about 12% over the final week whereas Tesla stock turned into up by about 18%. This also likely helped Snowflake. Now whereas Snowflake’s myth and development rates are compelling, the firm’s lofty valuation remains a advise, pondering that it now trades at about 150x projected 2021 Revenues. (Survey our impress below for the most important dangers that Snowflake faces.)

Our interactive prognosis on Snowflake’s Valuation provides more important aspects on the firm’s Earnings and valuation.

[Updated 11/12/2020] Snowflake Inventory: 3 Key Dangers

Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW), the cloud-essentially based mostly data warehousing firm that went public in September, is valued at over $65 billion, or about $240 per portion. Under, we resolve a survey at about a of the most important dangers that the firm faces.

Snowflake’s tool permits organizations to modify and analyze trim portions and various forms of data across public clouds akin to Amazon’s AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft’s Azure, in a single, easy to make say of platform. Then once more, these public cloud gamers also provide their very maintain data warehousing solutions. As an illustration, Amazon’s AWS supplies Redshift, whereas Google supplies BigQuery and these companies maintain a robust incentive to advertise their very maintain warehousing offerings, which permits them to lock customers into their merchandise and services. Snowflake acknowledges this risk in its S-1 submitting, noting that these companies can also say modify of their public clouds to embed innovations or privileged capabilities for their competing offerings or bundle their competing merchandise. Snowflake also depends on infrastructure from the predominant cloud gamers akin to AWS and it’s also possible that they are able to even provide Snowflake with unsuitable pricing. Such moves can also trouble Snowflake’s industry and profitability.

Snowflake stock also has substantial valuation risk, pondering that it trades at about 115x projected FY’21 revenues, when put next to the broader tool house that trades at about 8x Revenues. [1] At these valuations, the firm has shrimp or no room for error and wishes to originate to perfection to interpret its stock impress. Moreover, Snowflake’s public drift – which is the different of shares held by public traders – is pretty low, with the firm providing merely 28 million shares or about 10% of its total shares smartly-known for the length of its IPO. The low provide of shares is absolute self assurance a serious reason the stock has rallied so essential since its list. With Snowflake stock up about 2x from its IPO impress, it’s totally likely that employees and traders can also money out when the submit IPO lockup length expires in March 2021, inserting downward stress on the stock.

[Updated 10/21/2020] Snowflake Vs. Palantir

The final month noticed Palantir (NYSE: PLTR) and Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW) – two comparatively excessive profile tool gamers shuffle public. Snowflake’s tool permits organizations to modify and analyze trim portions and various forms of data across public clouds akin to Amazon’s AWS in a single, easy to make say of platform. Palantir supplies immense data and analytics solutions essentially previous by governments and intelligence businesses, though it has been expanding its presence within the commercial house.

Whereas the two companies are centered on immense data, traders are valuing them very in a single more device. Snowflake stock trades at over 120x projected FY’21 Revenues (FY ends January) whereas Palantir trades at virtually about 15x projected FY’20 Revenues (FY cease December). Does this create sense? How originate the companies compare in the case of industry devices, earnings development rates, and margins? We provide more important aspects below.

Survey our interactive prognosis on Snowflake’s Valuation and Palantir’s Valuation for more important aspects on the two companies’ valuation.

Revenues & Enhance Rates

Palantir’s Revenues grew by 24% to about $740 million in 2019 and development is likely to determine on-as much as ranges of over 40% in 2020 as Covid-19 linked disruptions increased count on for the firm’s services. When when put next, Snowflake noticed Earnings grow 173% from $97 million in FY’19 to about $265 million in FY’20, though the event price is likely to gradual down to roughly 110% over the recent fiscal in step with consensus figures. Overall, Snowflake’s Revenues can also merely detached grow at a increased price when put next to Palantir, pondering its SaaS-essentially based mostly mannequin which can scale to a trim wretched of customers with essential much less customization. Palantir, on the assorted hand, wants engineers to adapt its instruments to the unique wants of customers. Snowflake had over 3,100 customers as of July 2020, when put next to Palantir which had about 125 customers as of its final fiscal one year.

Profitability 

Whereas Palantir is pretty forward in the case of profit margins pondering that it’s the more previous firm (Palantir turned into founded in 2003 versus Snowflake which turned into founded in 2012), we count on Snowflake to be more worthwhile within the lengthy-drag given its comparatively more standardized product and lower buyer acquisition charges. Snowflake posted a Deplorable Profit Margin of 62% for the first six months of FY’21, with Working Margins standing at -72%. Palantir’s Deplorable Margins stood at about 72% over the first six months of 2020, with Working Margins coming in at about -35%.

Valuation 

Snowflake stock has bigger than doubled from its IPO impress of $120 to about $250 for the time being, valuing the firm at about $70 billion. Palantir, on the assorted hand, hasn’t moved too essential since its list and is valued at about $15 billion. There are about a causes for Snowflake’s top price valuation. First and predominant, the firm is growing essential faster than Palantir and would possibly perhaps presumably merely detached also be more worthwhile within the lengthy-drag given its highly scalable provide mannequin. Investors maintain also been paying a immense top price for development stocks. Secondly, unlike Palantir which has excessive exposure to authorities contracts – namely in areas linked to surveillance and national security – causing transparency and thought considerations, Snowflake’s industry is centered on more commercial customers.

That stated, Snowflake has substantial valuation risk, pondering that it trades at about 122x projected FY’21 revenues, when put next to Palantir which trades at virtually about 15x projected 2020 Revenues. The myth can also commerce quickly. If Snowflake’s development rates gradual down, with the firm going through competition from cloud majors akin to Amazon and Google who provide their very maintain data warehousing solutions, traders can also re-secure its valuation. On the assorted facet, traders can also double down on Palantir stock within the occasion that they give the influence of being more proof aspects indicating that the firm is making development within the commercial sector, by strategy of excessive profile affords or stronger Earnings development.

[Updated 9/29/2020] Placing Snowflake’s Valuation Into Perspective

Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW), the cloud-essentially based mostly data warehousing firm that went public currently, is valued at about $60 billion, or about $220 per portion. The firm trades at a whopping 230x trailing Revenues – smartly above many different excessive-development SaaS names. Can Snowflake interpret this valuation? In our interactive dashboard prognosis on Snowflake’s Valuation: Costly Or Cheap we spoil down the firm’s revenues and valuation and compare it with assorted excessive-development tool gamers. Aspects of the prognosis are summarized below.

A Rapid Look At Snowflake’s Industry & Dangers

Snowflake’s tool permits organizations to modify and analyze trim portions and various forms of data across public clouds akin to Amazon’s AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft’s Azure in a single, easy to make say of platform. Snowflake stands to profit as companies increasingly switch to the cloud whereas leveraging immense data and synthetic intelligence. Even though necessary public cloud gamers maintain their very maintain data warehousing solutions, (Amazon’s AWS supplies Redshift, whereas Google supplies BigQuery), Snowflake’s platform supplies more flexibility when put next to rivals and works smartly across platforms. Then once more, the immense cloud gamers maintain a robust incentive to advertise their very maintain warehousing offerings, because it permits them to lock customers into their platforms and services. There would possibly perhaps be a possibility that these companies can also say their immense sources and modify over their respective platforms to create an edge over Snowflake.

Snowflake’s Earnings

Let’s resolve a closer impress at what’s using Snowflake’s Earnings. Snowflake has two working segments. 1) Merchandise, which consist of Snowflake’s core data warehousing solutions. Potentialities pay essentially based totally on the compute and storage that they say. 2) Legit Products and services – which contains consulting, on-device technical solution services, and training linked to the platform.

Snowflake’s Product Earnings grew from $96 million in FY’19 to about $252 million in FY’20, as the firm grew its buyer wretched by 152% from 948 in FY’19 to 2,392 customers. Primarily based on the historical development price, and development over Q2 (it had 3,117 customers as of July 2020), we count on Snowflake’s buyer wretched to grow to about 4,600 in FY’21, with total Product revenues coming in at about $530 million. Snowflake’s Full Earnings, which contains its earnings from Legit Products and services grew from $97 million in FY’19 to about $265 in FY’20 and we count on it to grow 110% to about $557 million in FY’21.

Now Snowflake is no longer handiest adding recent customers at a rapid clip, but it surely is also better monetizing its present customers. Snowflake’s Catch Earnings Retention price – which is the percent of earnings retained from the prior one year after factoring for upgrades, downgrades, and churn – stood at 158%, indicating that present customers proceed to use more.

Why Is Snowflake’s Buying and selling At Such A Premium?

With benchmark ardour rates at shut to-zero ranges, traders maintain most ceaselessly been paying a top price for development. Then once more, Snowflake stock, which trades at about 110x our projected FY’21 revenues for the firm and over 230x FY’20 revenues appears expensive. Let’s compare Snowflake with assorted excessive development SaaS and database gamers. Datadog trades at 76x trailing revenues and posted 83% earnings development in 2020. Okta trades at 25x trailing revenues and posted 46% development over its most most up-to-date fiscal one year. MongoDB trades at 22x and posted 58% development.

Definite Snowflake is growing faster than these companies, but there is another reason the stock shall be Trading so excessive, namely a low provide of shares. Snowflake’s public drift – which is the different of shares held by public traders – stood at merely 28 million shares or about 10% of its total shares smartly-known, and the low provide of shares is likely to maintain precipitated a negate up within the price. With Snowflake stock up virtually 2x from its IPO impress, it’s totally likely that employees and traders will have interaction to money out as the submit IPO lockup sessions expire, inserting downward stress on the stock.

Whereas Snowflake appears to be like overpriced when put next to Teradata, 2020 has created many different pricing discontinuities that will presumably provide handsome Trading alternatives. As an illustration, you’ll be stunned how the stock valuation for Microsoft vs. Corcept Therapeutics presentations a disconnect with their relative operational development. You are going to fetch many such discontinuous pairs here.

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Notes:

  1. Tag To Gross sales Multiples By Sector, NYU Stern []

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